Paxton, Talarico battle for Texas Senate seat: Election Day live updates

Texans head to the polls today to cast decisive votes in races that will shape the nation's and the state's future.

Chief among them is the nationally watched and debated U.S. Senate race in Texas , where Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarcio are seeking to replace U.S. Sen. John Cornyn.

On a state level, Gov. Greg Abbott is seeing the tightest reelection campaign since being elected to office in 2014. Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa is seeking to replace him as the first Democrat elected to office in over 30 years and the first Latina in state history.

Follow along throughout the day as we bring you live coverage of what is happening in Texas throughout Election Day.

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What are the odds in the Texas governor's race?

11:01 AM ET, November 3 2026, Mateo Rosiles

Here's a look at the two biggest prediction markets as of 8 a.m. on Nov. 3 and what they say about the Texas governor's race.

Who will win the Texas governor's race between Greg Abbott, Gina Hinojosa?

Polymarket: Abbott 64%, Hinojosa 37%. Market volume = $3,075,821.

Kalshi: Abbott 65%, Hinojosa 35%. Market volume = $19,191,934.

Who will win the Texas Senate and governor's races (combo)?

Combo markets price specific split-ticket outcomes, letting traders bet on both races together.

Greg Abbott and James Talarico win — 42%

Gina Hinojosa and James Talarico win — 35%

Gina Hinojosa and Ken Paxton win — less than 1%

Greg Abbott and James Talarico win — 44%

Gina Hinojosa and James Talarico win — 33%

10:24 AM ET, November 3 2026, Mateo Rosiles

For the first time in more than three decades, a Texas Democrat is heading into November within striking distance of the governor's mansion — and she would make history if she wins.

Hinojosa, a five-term Austin lawmaker, is polling within the margin of error against Abbott — a three-term incumbent who has never won reelection by fewer than 11 points in the past few months.

A final poll from the New York Times/Siena University , released Nov. 1, shows Hinojosa and Abbott are statistically tied, 48% to 47%.

U of H Hobby poll (Oct. 18) — Abbott 49%, Hinojosa 46%.

Marist poll (Oct. 14) — Abbott 49%, Hinojosa 45%.

UT/Texas Politics Project (Oct. 13) — Hinojosa 49%, Abbott 48%

ReconMR (Oct. 13) — Abbott 48%, Hinojosa 47%

UMass Lowell (Oct. 8) — Abbott 48%, Hinojosa 44%.

YouGov poll (Oct. 6 ) — Hinojosa 48%, Abbott 47%.

The New York Times (Oct. 3) — Hinojosa 49%, Abbott 46%.

Fox News (Oct. 1) — Abbott 52%, Hinojosa 47%.

10:18 AM ET, November 3 2026, Mateo Rosiles

Here's a look at the two biggest prediction markets as of 8 a.m. on Nov. 3 and what they are saying about the Texas Senate race.

Who will win the Texas U.S. Senate race between Ken Paxton, James Talarico?

Polymarket: Talarico 74%, Paxton 26%. Market volume = $13,567,779.

Kalshi: Talarico 73%, Paxton 27%. Market volume = $89,636,005.

Here is a look at the top four margins traders are trading on.

Texas congressional races to watch tonight

10:00 AM ET, November 3 2026, Mateo Rosiles

Three congressional races in Texas are giving the Republican Party a headache, as political analysis shows they are shifting toward Democrats.

These three races are among 15 U.S. House races nationwide whose ratings have shifted, suggesting Republicans are on track to lose the House majority in the midterm elections, according to The Cook Political Report .

Texas' 35th District — Democrat Johnny Garcia vs. Republican Carlos De La Cruz

Texas' 9th District — Republican Alex Mealer vs. Democrat Leticia Gutierrez.

The last race is between Democrat Bobby Pulido , the Tejano singer-songwriter, and incumbent Republican Rep. Monica De La Cruz in Texas' 15th Congressional District.

Texas early voting: How 2026 compares with 2022 and 2024

09:45 AM ET, November 3 2026, Brandi D. Addison

More than 7.7 million Texans voted early ahead of the 2026 midterms, according to figures through Oct. 30.

That's about 1.3 million fewer early votes than ahead of the 2024 presidential election, but about 2.2 million more than ahead of the 2022 gubernatorial election.

Election Day voting totals will provide a fuller picture of participation in this year's midterms.

Recent Talarico-Paxton Texas Senate polls

09:45 AM ET, November 3 2026, Mateo Rosiles

Since Ken Paxton won the Republican primary runoff in May, polls have shown him and James Talarico statistically tied within the margin of error.

The gap between the two didn't start to grow until early fall, when Talarico led outside the margin of error.

A final poll from the New York Times /Siena College , released Nov. 1, shows Talarico leading Paxton , 50% to 43% — a 7-point lead outside the poll's margin.

Texas early voting surpasses 7.7 million ahead of Election Day

09:01 AM ET, November 3 2026, Brandi D. Addison

More than 7.7 million Texans had cast ballots before Election Day, according to statewide turnout figures from the secretary of state office.

About 7.5 million voted early in person, while roughly 281,000 cast mail ballots.

That's fewer than the 9.1 million early votes recorded ahead of the 2024 presidential election, but more than the 5.5 million cast ahead of the 2022 midterms.

09:01 AM ET, November 3 2026, Mateo Rosiles

While polls have been open for an hour across most of Texas, voting is just getting underway in El Paso and Hudspeth counties.

The two counties are in the Mountain Time Zone, while most of Texas is in the Central Time Zone. Polls close at 7 p.m. local time statewide.

Harris County tops Texas in early ballots cast

08:26 AM ET, November 3 2026, Brandi D. Addison

Harris County reported the most early ballots in Texas through Oct. 30, with about 1.07 million.

Dallas County ranked second with 624,000, followed by Tarrant County with 587,000, Bexar County with 526,000 and Travis County with 444,000.

Together, the five counties accounted for about 3.3 million early ballots.

08:01 AM ET, November 3 2026, Mateo Rosiles

It is Election Day in Texas, and the nation's eyes are on the state as it waits to see whether Democratic hopeful James Talarico can flip one of the state's U.S. Senate seats blue against Republican candidate Ken Paxton.

Texans are also watching to see whether any statewide offices will flip blue this cycle—most notably the governor's seat, as Gov. Greg Abbott is running for his fourth term.

He faces Democrat Gina Hinojosa in the contest — who, if she wins, would be the first Latina governor in the state's history and the first Democrat to hold the governor's seat in over 30 years.