The Data Dive: Kornacki on the Texas voters giving Democrats hope

Welcome to The Data Dive, your subscriber-exclusive newsletter about the most consequential elections of the midterms. Every Tuesday morning, I’ll focus on the numbers, trends and data shaping the biggest stories heading into Election Day. I’ll also dig into the 2026 battlegrounds that will determine control of Congress — one district, one county, one city and maybe even one precinct at a time. In today’s edition: how two crucial groups of voters in Texas appear to be shifting, and a preview of the two counties I’ll be watching on election night. Let’s dive in. What I’m watching