Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifts Kansas Senate to toss-up

Sabato’s Crystal Ball , an election handicapper, shifted the Kansas Senate race to a “toss-up” amid growing voter dissatisfaction with the GOP over the economy.

The group noted in its explanation they were “hesitant” to shift the race but “a full-on Republican rescue operation appears underway for” Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.), who is running for his second term against Democrat Adam Hamilton.

Many GOP strategists worry Kansas has shifted away from the party as the Senate Leadership Fund (SLF), a PAC aligned with Republican Senate leadership, already dropped $14 million into Marshall’s reelection bid earlier this month.

While Kansas has not elected a Democratic senator since 1932, Hamilton poses a unique challenge against Marshall due to controversy surrounding the senator and the Sunflower State’s growing disapproval of the face of the GOP: President Trump.

According to Civiqs’s presidential approval tracker, Trump’s approval rating has fallen steadily since the start of the war against Iran, which is partially responsible for rising gas and diesel prices in the state.

Marshall’s campaign was criticized recently over his handling of taxpayer funds and for suing hundreds of patients over medical debt, while Hamilton has received scrutiny over his handling of a child sexual abuse scandal at his church.

An attorney for Marshall told MS NOW and the Kansas Reflector that the official office and campaign site both comply with campaign finance rules and Senate ethics rules. Marshall has defended his decision to sue medical patients, saying he acted appropriately.

Hamilton told the Reflector he would have handled the initial reports of abuse, which were ultimately reported to officials, differently, but he stated that “there was no attempt at a cover-up” during the church’s investigation.

As part of his midterm blitz, Trump is heading to Kansas to energize his voter base in a state he won handily in 2016, 2020 and 2024.

Other Senate races that Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifted in Democrats’ favor were in Missouri, Nebraska and New Hampshire as the GOP weathers a rocky midterm environment .

Democrats are on the defensive, however, in Minnesota’s open Senate race, as Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifted the race in the GOP’s favor.

New polling shows Democrat Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan led her GOP opponent, former NFL sideline reporter Michele Tafoya, by only 4 points, which was within the poll’s margin of error. Tafoya, meanwhile, led Flanagan among independents in the same poll.