Whole Hog Politics: Trump plays the hits, but struggling GOP seeks new material

[ Watch Whole Hog Politics Live : Hill Insider members can join us live today at 9 am ET as Chris Stirewalt and host Bill Sammon go deep on this week’s political news. Members can join the discussion and pose their questions to Bill and Chris. Tune in! ] There are a couple of ways to think about President Trump ’s predictably failed effort to bar certain news organizations from the White House — if you have to think about it at all.

One version — if you ascribe the “walls-are-closing-in” school of Trumpology — is that as Trump’s second term stacks failure upon failure and Republicans brace for humiliating midterm losses, the president is lashing out.

The other version — if you ascribe to the “four-dimensional chess” view — is that the president is making a point to the American people about the profound bias of the mainstream press and rattling the cages of the media at the same time.

The first view would be more persuasive if we knew that Trump really thought he was failing and really believed that his team was about to get skunked. We’ve seen reporting that, behind closed doors , the president shares his adviser’s sober assessment of his political situation. Really, though? When Trump tried to overturn the election he lost in 2020, was he lying in an attempted self-coup or just delusional? Maybe a little of both, depending on the day. But certainly we know a core Trump attribute is the creation and diligent maintenance of a surreality in which he is always “WINNING.”

The “four-dimensional chess” point of view would be more convincing if it had not been subsequently reported that a background briefing arranged by the White House for reporters with Vice President Vance was the source for one of the articles listed in the president’s grievances against the briefly banned organizations. Whatever else the short-lived press ban was, it was not some strategic masterstroke.

But that doesn’t mean it wasn’t targeted at an audience beyond Washington.

Every day seems to bring another story of another Republican — from MAGA stalwarts like Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Fla.) in his Florida gubernatorial race to former Trump skeptics like Michele Tafoya in her Minnesota Senate run — looking to create distance between themselves and the president. Beyond these specific wiggles, the increasing effort in the GOP to be both for and against the Iran war at the same time speaks to the change.

In the most recent New York Times/Siena poll , the percentage of voters who said they “strongly approve” of Trump’s job performance clocked in at 24 percent. That’s far better than the core support Trump’s predecessor, former President Biden , was enjoying when he was getting similarly abysmal overall ratings and the strong support of just 12 percent of voters — sometimes even less.

Indeed, the loyalty of Trump’s core voters has been his political superpower. In his first term, his top-line numbers faltered frequently, but his base mostly stayed with him. And so it is again. If you go back before the Iran war that has tanked Republican ratings across the country, strong approval is basically identical : 25 percent. Or go back to early last year when the brief honeymoon Trump enjoyed with the broader electorate still hadn’t entirely worn off: About the same at 28 percent strong approval .

Good times or bad times. Cheap gas or $5 a gallon. “Drain the swamp” or a big beautiful ballroom built by Beltway bandits. That quarter of the electorate are his people through it all. And that’s why he has such absolute power over the GOP — or at least had it. You can’t win a general election with 25 percent of the voters, but you sure can win a ton of low-turnout primaries.

Wasting time on kicking out the reporters the president doesn’t like probably means very little to persuadable voters, for good or ill. As is often said in Washington, bad behavior from the president is “priced in.” It takes something more than just revoking press passes to get noticed after a decade of Mr. Outrageous.

But Trump knows his people and what they want. And like all super fans, they want him to play the hits. Fighting with cable TV hosts is always triple-platinum in the Trump catalog. When times are tough and the new material isn’t landing, go back to the classics.

The problem for Trump and his party right now is that the president can’t or won’t try to reach any other voters. He and his quarter of the electorate are in a “Love Island” villa together, deeply in love and disconnected from the rest of political reality. In there, it’s always election night 2024 and the vibes are impeccable.

For Republicans who have to live outside of the villa — which is to say every Republican candidate in the country outside of the 10 or so reddest states — the need to find some way through the increasingly difficult climate of this fall is causing them to, for the first time in many cases, publicly break with the president.

Since all the primaries are over, Trump’s ability to punish dissent is not quite over but certainly very much diminished. And if you’re in a race where squishy Republicans and swing voters outnumber Trump’s golden quarter, you’ve got to make a move.

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Change from one week ago: ↓ 5.6 points (-25.2 points)

Change from one month ago: ↓ 5.4 points (-25.4 points)

[ Average includes: Emerson College: 39 percent approve – 58 percent disapprove; Echelon Insights: 36 percent approve – 64 percent disapprove; American Research Group: 29 percent approve – 68 percent disapprove; Ipsos/Reuters: 32 percent approve – 66 percent disapprove ]

Change from one week ago: ↓ 1 point (D + 9 points)

Change from one month ago: ↑ 1.4 points (D +6.6 points)

[ Average includes: Emerson College: 53 percent Democratic – 42 percent Republican; Echelon Insights: 51 percent Democratic – 43 percent Republican; Ipsos/Reuters: 43 percent Democratic – 35 percent Republican; CNN: 49 percent Democratic – 41 percent Republican; NBC News: 50 percent Democratic – 45 percent Republican ]

ON THE SIDE: THE MELTING POT, SERVED WITH NAAN

The New York Times : “Aga’s is, in many ways, the kind of restaurant you can find all over the Houston area — a family-run strip-mall joint in the suburbs serving inexpensive food that tastes like the best home cooking. But there’s nothing typical about the scene at this Indian-Pakistani restaurant. Even as the temperature soared past 90 degrees on a recent Saturday night, hundreds of people milled outside waiting for a table. … A host wielding a hand-held microphone called out names like an auctioneer. … The restaurant serves about 4,000 guests a day. Then there are another 1,600 or so takeout and delivery orders — a total of about half a million per year, according to Aga’s, which says its annual revenue stretches well into eight figures. In fact, Uber Eats says it delivers more to-go orders for Aga’s than for any other single-location restaurant in the world … Indian and Pakistani food are not among the three most popular cuisines it delivers, and Houston isn’t a top-three city.”

After a split decision in 2022, are independent voters ready to pick a side in this year’s midterms?

If the 2026 midterms are mainly a battle of the two parties’ base voters, Democrats have a lot of reasons to be hopeful. Primary turnout is a strong indicator for election enthusiasm, and Democrats beat Republicans in turnout by an 11-point margin this season.

But a wave the size of the one Democrats are dreaming of requires both a cranked-up base and a dominant performance with persuadable voters, typically found in the growing pool of Americans who aren’t affiliated with either party.

The most recent New York Times/Siena poll has independents breaking for Democrats by 23 points on the generic ballot. For comparison, the same pollsters found a 1-point advantage for Republicans in September of 2022.

That was pretty close to the final result four years ago. AP VoteCast data showed independents actually broke for Democrats by 4 points. The closeness among independents tell the story of how Republicans’ hopes for a big win in the Biden-era midterm came up short. The GOP base was enough to retake the House but only just barely.

In the midterm year before that, 2018, Democrats won the enthusiasm game with Republicans but also did very well with independents: a 13-point advantage according to AP VoteCast. That’s a more typical performance for the party out of power in a midterm year. Combining a decisive advantage with unaffiliated voters with high base voter intensity is how Democrats helped themselves to a best-in-a-generation performance in the House that year.

That was true in 2014, as well. Republicans won independents by 12 points according to that year’s exit poll as they expanded their already substantial House majority of the time and flipped a staggering nine net Senate seats.

If the 23-point edge for Democrats in the latest Times/Siena poll proves predictive, or at least as predictive as their 2022 numbers, the November wipeout for Republicans would be massive. If independents do go for Democrats by 10 points more than they did in 2018, it would be a true tsunami.

But that would require unaffiliated voters not just to show up but resist writing in Fred Rogers or John McCain and actually pick the blue team. Republican messaging that seems mostly aimed at the party’s own base may also help keep frustrated independents from going all the way to the other side.

Dems leading in Michigan, New Hampshire: The Hill : “Democrats are maintaining their leads in the U.S. Senate races in Michigan and New Hampshire, according to New York Times/Siena polling released Thursday. In the Michigan race, Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed garnered 49 percent support compared with the 44 percent of respondents who favored Republican Mike Rogers . The Democrat has maintained a slight lead over his GOP opponent in polling this month. In New Hampshire, Democrat Chris Pappas also posted a 5-point advantage in the state’s Senate race, receiving 50 percent support compared with the 45 percent backing earned by Republican candidate John Sununu . Both New Hampshire candidates received net-negative favorability ratings of minus 1 point from voters. Independent voters, a key voting bloc in the state, leaned toward supporting Pappas by 10 points.”

But Collins ahead in Maine: The New York Times : “Senator Susan Collins of Maine, a Republican, held a slim lead over Troy Jackson , a Democrat, with two weeks until early voting begins in the Senate battleground, according to a new poll of likely voters from The New York Times and Siena University. Ms. Collins led Mr. Jackson by three percentage points in the survey, which was conducted from Sept. 15 to 22. That was largely before reports on Tuesday that the F.B.I. last year shut down an inquiry into allegations that an adviser to Ms. Collins had participated in a scheme to funnel illegal campaign contributions. ( Annie Clark , Ms. Collins’s deputy chief of staff, called the allegations ‘categorically false.’) Early voting in Maine, where Democrats are trying to topple a centrist Republican with a strong brand, begins Oct. 5.”

Democrat Turek leads in new Iowa poll: The Hill: “Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Iowa) is trailing her Democratic competitor, state Rep. Josh Turek , by 8 points in the upcoming Iowa Senate race, survey results published Tuesday found. Around 50 percent of respondents to the latest Marist Poll said they plan to vote for Turek in November, while 42 percent said the same of Hinson. Two percent said they are going to back someone else, while 5 percent were unsure on their vote choice or did not answer. The survey also found that, despite Hinson polling slightly behind Turek, a majority of respondents — 59 percent — believed she would claim the Hawkeye State’s open senator position. A Democrat has not been elected to the post since 2008, and 37 percent predicted Turek would be able to flip the seat. The fresh polling from Marist comes amid rocky political territory for the GOP, even in firmly red states like Iowa, with the Iran war driving up fuel prices, President Trump’s approval rating sagging and Republicans polling behind Democrats on issues like immigration and healthcare.”

GOP drops Senate races in red states Georgia and North Carolina: Politico : “The National Republican Senatorial Committee is shifting its focus away from the North Carolina and Georgia Senate races as it works to shore up red states like Texas and flip other Democratic-held seats. In a closed-door meeting Wednesday, Sen. Tim Scott , the chair of the NRSC, told Senate Republicans that the campaign arm will focus its spending going forward on defending GOP seats in Maine, Alaska, Ohio, Iowa and Texas and trying to flip the Democratic-held seats of Michigan and New Hampshire, according to four people in the room who were granted anonymity to share private details. That list notably leaves out North Carolina GOP nominee Michael Whatley ’s battle against Democrat Roy Cooper and Georgia GOP nominee Mike Collins ’ effort to unseat Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff . … It’s a remarkable shift: President Donald Trump carried Georgia twice in 2016 and 2024 and North Carolina over the last three presidential elections.”

Democratic primary turnout reached record high: The Downballot : “Throughout this year’s just-concluded primary season, there’s been one consistent storyline: Democratic primaries have seen much higher turnout than their Republican counterparts. But does this meaningfully indicate what we might expect in November? It turns out the answer is very much yes. In midterms over the past 80 years, there’s been a surprisingly tight relationship between voting behavior in a given cycle’s primaries and the House popular vote in the general election that follows. Based on that relationship, this year’s primary turnout suggests that Democrats would win the House vote by an enormous 13-point spread. … Assessing a state’s total primary turnout in midterm years is not as straightforward as it might seem, however. That’s because every state hosts a mix of different races, and for many contests, it might not even hold a primary at all.”

Hispanic voters may propel a blue wave: The New York Times : “President Trump’s enormous gains among Hispanic voters in the last election propelled him to victory in the national popular vote and prompted talk of a political realignment. Two years later, that talk is over. In an average of high-quality national polls over the last month, Democrats led Republicans among Hispanic likely voters by 35 percentage points, 64-29, on the generic congressional ballot, which asks voters which party they will support for Congress. That would mark an extraordinary reversal since 2024, when the same pollsters found Kamala Harris leading Mr. Trump by an average of only seven points among Hispanic voters in their final surveys. … If one applied the demographic trends from recent Times/Siena national polls to districts across the country … Texas and Florida would become ground zero for a possible Democratic tsunami, with the party’s chance at a large congressional majority potentially hinging on whether it could break through Republican gerrymanders in those states.”

Democrats lean on influencers, with risks and rewards — Politico

What GOP’s big money advantage can and can’t buy in the home stretch — Silver Bulletin

Rep. Jared Golden (D-Maine) endorses Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y) for reelection, to the frustration of many Democrats — The Journal News

Outdoor apparel brand, Patagonia, is giving out checks to customers who help people vote — The New York Times

Pro-Trump campaign ads air with disclaimer citing taxpayer funding — Newsweek

Judge tosses Trump lawsuit against Iowa paper and pollster for errant 2024 poll — The Associated Press

“Sometimes life makes things ready for you”: Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) on a 2028 run — The New York Times

Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker (D) cops to taking weight-loss drugs as he eyes a White House run — The Wall Street Journal

Sen. John Curtis (R-Utah) opens investigation into Trump son’s wedding bash funded by Putinist oligarch — The Hill

“So to the fake news, who will accuse me of bad language, I promise I did not mean to call them the ‘fart left.’ I meant to call them the ‘far left.’” — Vice President Vance speaking at a campaign rally in North Carolina.

“OUR SIGN GAME IS F—-D”— Democratic Senate nominee from Alaska, Mary Peltola , in an August text to her staff leaked to The New York Times complaining about a dearth of campaign signs in the southeastern part of the state.

“It’s terrifying when you think about this. When you walk on to a commercial flight, it’s possible that the pilot flying your plane could have a deranged fetish of dressing up like an animal.” — Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.) in a floor speech denouncing “furries.”

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FOR DESSERT: PIKACHU IS VERY DISAPPOINTED IN YOU

WJW : “‘Pokémon is absolutely the hottest thing going,’ said store manager Randy Kendall . … His store, along with major retailers, frequently gets drops of new boxes of cards, for which collectors and people often called scalpers will line up as much as 100 deep for a chance to get their hands on as few as four boxes. … In June, Wooster police were notified by a delivery driver that she found a GPS tracker on her car. Authorities arrested Kent Kubasta , 72, of Medina, who records show admitted to illegally placing the tracker on her vehicle to be able to tell where and when the Pokémon deliveries were being made. In Wayne County Municipal Court on Friday, Kubasta entered a plea of no contest to a charge of illegal use of a tracking device. Kubasta was contacted by FOX 8 News on Monday and offered an opportunity to explain, but he declined comment.”