Talarico vs. Paxton Texas Senate race tightens as new poll drops

A new poll finds that Democrat James Talarico is holding a slight lead over Republican Ken Paxton in the race for U.S. Senate in Texas.

A BIG DATA POLL conducted Sept. 24–26 found Talarico ahead of Paxton among registered Texas voters, 43.6% to 39.3%. Among voters likely to cast a ballot, Talarico led 44.6% to 41.6%.

When pollsters asked undecided voters which candidate they were leaning toward, the race tightened.

Talarico led Paxton 46.4% to 43.8% among registered voters and 46.8% to 44.9% among likely voters, suggesting undecided voters leaned more toward Paxton, narrowing Talarico's lead.

The poll surveyed 793 registered voters and 698 likely voters in Texas. For both groups, the margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Here's what September polls have shown so far:

Texas Southern University (Sept. 22) — Talarico 47%, Paxton 46%.

ReconMR Texas Poll (Sept. 17) — Talarico 49%, Paxton 43%.

Emerson College (Sept. 17) — Talarico 47%, Paxton 46%.

Mason-Dixon Polling & Research (Sept. 15) — Talarico 46%, Paxton 43%.

SoCal Strategies (Sept. 13) — Talarico 50%, Paxton 45%.

AARP (Sept. 10) — Talarico 48%, Paxton 44%.

N+ Univision (Sept. 9) — Talarico 48%, Paxton 43%.

Natassia Paloma may be reached at npaloma@gannett.com , @NatassiaPaloma on X, natassia_paloma on Instagram, and Natassia Paloma on Facebook.