Talarico up 4 points in new Texas poll

Democratic Texas Senate candidate James Talarico is ahead of his Republican opponent Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton in the race for an upper chamber seat in the Lone Star State by about 4 points, according to a new poll.

In the Big Data Poll survey , 43.6 percent of respondents said they would back Talarico if the election occurred that day, while 39.3 percent said they would back Paxton and 5.2 percent said they would back a Libertarian candidate. The percentage of people who were undecided about a candidate was 11.9 percent.

In recent history, Democrats have struggled on the statewide level to capture Texas, but the national political environment heavily favors them heading into the midterms. Republicans are staring down issues like President Trump’s sliding approval rating, Democrats’ outperformance of the GOP in recent polling, the unpopular war in Iran and cost of living concerns.

Paxton also comes with some baggage , previously facing impeachment in the Texas House on corruption charges before he was later acquitted by the state’s Senate three years ago.

The nonpartisan election handicapper Cook Political Report rates the Texas Senate race as a “toss-up.”

A polling average from Decision Desk HQ found Talarico leading Paxton 47.4 percent to 43.5 percent Monday afternoon.

The Big Data Poll survey took place Sept. 24-26 among 793 registered voters and had a margin of sampling error of 4 points.