Carville: Republicans could lose House, Senate despite ‘huge financial advantage’

Democratic strategist James Carville said Thursday that Republicans are “highly likely” to lose House control next month, despite a significant financial advantage and several successful redistricting measures .

Carville, in an appearance on NewsNation’s “Cuomo,” doubled down on his analysis giving Democrats the leg up with the midterm elections just more than two weeks away. He added that the GOP could also lose the Senate.

“When this year started, remember, the Republicans had a huge financial advantage. We were all brought up to think money really matters in politics,” the strategist told host Chris Cuomo. “They had a gerrymandered House map, and they had a blood-red Senate map.”

The strategist, who served as former President Clinton’s adviser, noted Democrats needed to focus their efforts on messaging and pushing legislation that is popular with voters.

The Republican Party has led the midterm redistricting battle, with significant pressure from President Trump to get it done. While Democrats followed suit in places like California and Virginia, Republicans were still able to give themselves a potential advantage heading into the 2026 midterms.

With more than $400 million in funding from Trump’s MAGA Inc. and large donations from people like tech mogul Elon Musk, the GOP started the cycle with a leg up. But the president’s low approval ratings and Democrats’ fundraising efforts have made a significant impact on the upcoming election.

“It seems highly likely that they’re going to win the House,” Carville continued Thursday. “I personally … but there’s just a hunch … I think they’ll win the Senate also.”

He added that if Democrats retake the majority in November, they should pass at least five pieces of legislation viewed favorably by most Americans. Some examples he provided include passing a minimum wage hike, reopening rural hospitals and pulling troops out of the Iran war — whether or not Trump would agree to sign the bills into law.

“I think the Democratic agenda is pretty simple,” Carville told NewsNation. “Pass that, which three-quarters of the American people want that they’ll never sign because their interest groups are holding them back.”

Decision Desk HQ, The Hill’s partner, currently shows Democrats with a 77 percent chance of retaking control of the House next year. On the Senate side, DDHQ forecasts the left with a narrow lead over Republicans.