Democrats hold 10-point lead over GOP in battle for Congress: Poll

Democrats have a 10-point lead over Republicans on a generic congressional ballot, as the parties face off for control of Congress in next week’s midterm election.

An Emerson College Polling survey released Friday found Democrats broadly leading with 52 percent support over 42 percent support for the GOP. This is only slightly tighter than Democrats’ 11-point lead in the polling center’s September survey .

The Democratic Party is fighting to retake control of both chambers of Congress this November. Decision Desk HQ’s forecast on Thursday put their odds of gaining control of the House at 80 percent and their chance of gaining majority power in the Senate at 60 percent.

Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, noted that support for Republicans is ending at the same 42 percent support level they began at in July 2025, when the polling center began tracking generic ballot support for this election cycle.

“Democratic support climbed eight points over the past fifteen months from 44% to 52%, undecided and swing voters clearly shifting in the Democrats’ favor,” Kimball said in a statement. “With about 5% still undecided, most of whom are independent and half disapprove of Trump, Democrats’ congressional ceiling could be higher than the poll reports.”

Kimball also noted President Trump’s plummeting approval ratings this year amid his administration’s ongoing military operations against Iran and a trade fight with Canada.

Fifty-seven percent of respondents in the October poll said they disapproved of Trump’s handling of his job as president — a 6-point increase since January. His approval rating was down to 37 percent in this new poll.

The survey also displayed an enthusiasm gap between Democrats and Republicans about voting in the upcoming midterms. Ninety-two percent of Democrats said they were either “very” or “somewhat” excited to cast their ballot in this election, while 85 percent of Republicans said the same.

The Emerson College Polling survey was conducted Oct. 24-26 among a sample of 1,000 likely voters with a margin of error of approximately 3 percentage points.