Hinson leads Iowa Senate contest as Sand holds edge for governor: Poll

Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Iowa) leads Democratic opponent Josh Turek for Iowa’s open Senate seat , and Democratic state auditor Rob Sand holds an edge over GOP opponent Zach Lahn in the gubernatorial contest , according to a new poll from Emerson College Polling and The Hill.

The poll reported Hinson notched 47 percent support, while Turek received 45 percent. Her lead is within the survey’s margin of error. Libertarian candidate Thomas Laehn received 2 percent support, and 7 percent of voters were undecided.

In the race for governor , 49 percent supported Sand, while 45 percent favored Lahn. Six percent said they were undecided.

Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, noted that support for the candidates was divided by age. “Voters over 50 differ in intensity of support on the Senate and gubernatorial ballot: they break for Hinson over Turek for Senate by 13, but Lahn only by five points on the ballot.”

Meanwhile, voters younger than 50 were more consistent, per Kimball. “They break for Turek on the Senate ballot by 14, and similarly Sand by 15,” he added.

The survey also found 42 percent of respondents identified the economy as their top issue, which is up 4 points from August. This is followed by healthcare at 18 percent, threats to democracy at 10 percent and education at 8 percent.

“Voters who say the economy is the top issue facing the state break for Hinson by four points, 47-43%, but for Rob Sand by three points, 49-46%,” Kimball said. “Voters who find healthcare or threats to democracy to be the top issue facing the state break for the Democratic candidates by double digits.”

Iowa has been a reliably red state in the past decade, with President Trump carrying it in all three of his presidential runs. However, the GOP enters a rocky midterm environment as the president’s approval rating continually declines and dissatisfaction with the ongoing conflict with Iran grows in the U.S.

Among likely voters in the Hawkeye state, the poll found 42 percent approved of the president’s handling of his job, while 51 percent disapproved.

The Cook Political Report refers to Iowa as “ground zero for backlash to the effect of Trump’s tariffs and Iran War on the agriculture industry.”

Hinson, particularly, has made moves to distance herself from Trump by focusing her campaign on the economic impact of the Iran war — notably opposing Trump’s plan to import beef as a way to reduce prices for Americans.

Although she has voted against resolutions that would limit actions in Iran, she called for an “immediate end” to the conflict, writing on social media , “Iowans are being squeezed and shouldn’t have to foot the bill at the pump or the checkout line for the war in Iran.”

The poll was conducted Oct. 5-6 among 650 likely voters in Iowa with a margin of error of 3.8 percentage points.