The 6 races that could decide Senate control

The midterm tug-of-war for Senate control will come down to half a dozen coin-toss contests, giving both parties a path to the upper chamber majority.

All six seats rated as “toss-ups” by DDHQ — Texas, Maine, Alaska, Ohio, Iowa and Kansas — are currently held by Republicans. The GOP’s best chance of flipping a seat is in Michigan, where DDHQ gives Democrats a 73 percent chance of winning.

As of the Friday before Election Day, DDHQ’s forecasts showed Democrats with the advantage in both chambers — though their chances were more uncertain in the Senate, with a 60 percent chance of a flip, than in the House, where they had an 82 percent chance.

Here’s what to know about the races that will decide Senate control:

The Senate race in Texas has been one of this cycle’s most closely watched, from Democrat James Talarico’s rising-star bid amid GOP-friendly redistricting to incumbent Sen. John Cornyn’s (R) dramatic loss to Attorney General Ken Paxton in a tough Republican primary runoff.

It’s become one of the most expensive non-presidential contests in U.S. history, pulling in more than half a billion dollars in what both sides frame as an existential fight for the Lone Star State’s political future.

Texas Democrats haven’t won a statewide race in decades, but they’re hopeful that Talarico’s unity-focused, faith-driven bid can compete with Paxton’s controversy-laden, MAGA-faithful campaign amid frustration with the White House.

Mere days before the election, Talarico was leading Paxton by just under four points in polling averages from DDHQ, with a 60 percent probability of flipping the seat. A recent Emerson College Poll found the race in a dead heat and noted that Libertarian candidate Ted Brown could pull some support on Election Day, potentially tipping the race in Talarico’s favor.

Hispanic and Latino voters could also be a game-changer. The bloc, which makes up roughly a third of the Texas electorate, moved toward President Trump in 2024, but appears to be returning to the left this cycle, frustrated by the president’s handling of the economy and immigration.

One of Democrats’ toughest flip opportunities will be in Iowa, where Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson hopes to hold back Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek in the race to replace retiring Sen. Joni Ernst (R).

According to DDHQ’s Friday forecasts, Hinson was headed into Election Day with a 55 percent chance of holding onto her seat as she led Turek by a single point in polling averages.

“Both Democrats and Republicans privately believe that if only one GOP candidate in our Toss Up states hangs on, it will be Iowa,” Cook Political Report’s Jessica Taylor wrote in an analysis ahead of the election, noting that Hinson has “deftly distanced herself” from some of Trump’s unpopular policies.

But Trump is still “deeply underwater” in Iowa, Taylor said, and Democrat Rob Sand’s gubernatorial bid could also be key to helping turnout for Turek.

“Ultimately, Democrats are poised to capitalize on Trump’s tumbling image and discouraged base. The true test may be whether even the best GOP candidates of the cycle — in Maine and Iowa — can survive a looming blue wave.”

Former Sen. Sherrod Brown’s (D) comeback bid in Ohio could restore Democrats to the Buckeye State’s Senate delegation just two years after he lost to Sen. Bernie Moreno (R).

Brown is challenging incumbent Sen. Jon Husted, who was appointed to fill Vice President Vance’s Senate vacancy, in the special election to fill out the rest of Vance’s term, which runs through 2028.

Alongside Texas, it’s become one of the priciest-ever Senate races. Brown brought in $23.1 million to Husted’s $5 million in the third quarter alone, but GOP-aligned groups have surged more than $100 million into the state to attack Brown.

Husted has Trump’s support — including comments on his physique that have gone viral in the closing days of the race — but Brown boasts higher name recognition and rare success as a Democrat in the red-leaning state.

As of Friday afternoon, Brown had a 55 percent probability of flipping the seat as he led Husted by roughly 3 points in DDHQ’s polling averages, according to The Hill’s partner.

“After Texas, Ohio is the next most vulnerable GOP-held seat on our list,” Taylor wrote for Cook Political Report, pointing out that Husted has probably been hurt by Republican Vivek Ramaswamy’s troubled campaign for Ohio governor.

Sen. Susan Collins (R) is aiming for a sixth term as a rare Republican to win in blue-leaning Maine. She’s been bolstered by her political legacy and name-ID as Democrats dealt with a tumultuous primary season.

But her challenger, Democrat Troy Jackson, is still favored to beat her. The former state Senate president, who unsuccessfully ran for governor this cycle, replaced progressive oyster farmer Graham Platner on the ticket when Platner’s bid imploded amid sexual misconduct allegations.

In a state that went to Vice President Harris in the 2024 presidential election, Collins is leaning on her seniority and stressing her distance from Trump — particularly on tariffs, which have strained Mainers’ pocketbooks and caused problems with Canada, a vital trading partner that shares a 600-mile border with the Pine Tree State.

But though she’s long enjoyed comfortable reelection numbers, she won by a narrower 9 points in 2020 after her controversial vote to confirm Justice Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court, which has continued to dog her in 2026.

Jackson had climbed to a 60 percent chance of ousting Collins in DDHQ’s Friday forecast, leading the incumbent by roughly 3 points in polling averages.

Kansas hasn’t elected a Democrat to the Senate in nearly a century, so its “toss-up” rating tees up what could be one of the cycle’s biggest surprises.

Democrat Adam Hamilton, a Methodist pastor and former Republican, has put Sen. Roger Marshall (R), an OB-GYN backed by Trump, on defense in the red stronghold.

In DDHQ’s Friday forecast, Marshall had dropped to a 53 percent chance of holding the seat for the GOP, as Hamilton climbed to a polling-average lead of nearly three points.

As of Friday, Democrats had spent $16 million more on the race than Republicans, according to data tracked by AdImpact.

Experts see the latest numbers out of Kansas as a clear sign of Democratic momentum across the country in this year’s midterms.

“A Democrat winning Kansas, even if that candidate is leading the polls, has got to be considered an upset,” said Decision Desk HQ’s chief elections analyst Geoffrey Skelley.

“If Democrats win Kansas, not only is it winning a state that they haven’t won in a Senate race since 1932, the longest such drought in the country for either major party, but … for the Senate control question, it gives Democrats sort of an additional card to play,” he said. “If they were to win Kansas, maybe they don’t need to flip Iowa. Maybe you know, maybe Alaska, you know, is less of a concern now.”

Alaska offers Democrats another serious pickup opportunity in what should have been a longshot based on recent trends.

Democrat Mary Peltola, who lost Alaska’s at-large House seat in 2024, is running on a “fish, family, freedom” platform as Sullivan touts his Trump alignment in the red state.

Peltola had a 60 percent shot of taking the seat in DDHQ’s Friday forecast, and was ahead by less than two points in the polling average.

But neither candidate was polling past 50 percent, opening up the possibility that the race kicks into a second round of ranked-choice tabulations. Maine is the only other state with ranked-choice voting statewide. Alaska’s sprawling map with isolated communities lets ballots be counted up to 15 days after the election, provided they were postmarked in time — which could prolong the suspense after polls close on Tuesday.

The race was also rocked in its home stretch by controversy over a candidate with the same name as the incumbent.

The Trump administration filed a lawsuit in late October seeking to block certification of the Senate election if the incumbent loses with Daniel J. Sullivan, who goes by Dan Sullivan, also on the ballot. Peltola’s campaign and national Democrats denied New York Times reporting this week that they coordinated to recruit candidates who could pull support from the sitting senator.