The House is decided — the Senate is anything but

One day out from midterms, the data is about as settled as it can get for one chamber of Congress, while the other remains quite up in the air — yet for Democrats, both appear promising based on the data.

Indeed, Democrats appear set to win the House and are favored to win the Senate. Nonetheless, there is a considerable difference for Democrats between just winning one or taking both chambers.

Given the national environment — Democrats lead the generic congressional ballot by 8 points, inching up to above 9 when adjusted for likely voters, according to Nate Silver — if Democrats win the House but lose the Senate, that could be seen as a pyrrhic victory, especially with the 2028 campaign starting on Nov. 4.

That said, President Trump’s job approval sits around 37 percent; worse, only 20 percent of Americans strongly approve of his job, while nearly 50 percent strongly disapprove. Republicans should worry that Trump could weigh them down.

No president has entered a midterm this unpopular since Harry Truman in 1946. As a result, Cook Political Report moved 19 House races toward Democrats last week, and now projects Democrats to pick up 12-22 House seats.

The Senate is another matter entirely. Democrats need a net gain of four seats, though one — North Carolina — appears settled. In the Tar Heel State, Democratic candidate, former Gov. Roy Cooper leads Republican Michael Whatley by an average of nearly 11 points. All other races though, are a coin flip, even if Democrats are outperforming, particularly in red states.

In the battleground states — Michigan , Iowa , Maine , Kansas , Ohio , Alaska and Texas — plus South Carolina which has become competitive, RealClearPolitics puts all within the margin of error.

And, according to a Washington Post analysis of polls only conducted since Sept. 15 in those states — excluding South Carolina — all of those races are within five points. There is slight movement towards Democrats of late, but certainly not enough to be conclusive.

There have been a few outliers. CNN polling released Thursday found Michigan Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed up 49 percent to 42 percent and Texas Senate candidate James Talarico up 49 percent to 42 percent. On Friday, a Washington Post survey in Kansas showed the Democrat, Adam Hamilton with a 10-point lead, which would be an unprecedented result for a state that hasn’t elected a Democratic senator in over 90 years.

Whether Democrats actually pull through to win the Senate, though, depends entirely upon whom you ask. In Iowa, Michigan, Ohio and Kansas, it is particularly hard to poll Republicans. Republican support may be stronger than it appears.

Still, the Decision Desk puts Democrats’ odds at 62 percent, even though they project 51 seats, leaving little room for error. VoteHub has them at 64 percent, whereas futures-trading sites are around 70 percent. Silver’s model put the odds at roughly 75 percent as of Oct. 20.

Nonetheless, turnout data supports Democrats’ optimism. More than 46 million ballots have been cast as of Friday, and in the states that report party, Democrats accounted for roughly 44 percent of them, against 31 percent for Republicans.

With margins projected to be this close, undecided voters could be decisive. CNN found that in Michigan, Texas and Kansas, at least one in eight likely voters could still change their minds. In Texas and Kansas, at least 6 in 10 undecided voters are Republicans or Republican-leaning. Whether that signifies room for the GOP to gain votes or that Republicans are likely to stay home — opening up those two deep-red states — remains to be seen.

Those surveys carry sampling errors of around 5 percent, and with contests projected to be decided by one or two points, that is significant. Put another way, while there is a current Democratic advantage for the upper chamber, it is not a settled outcome, even though Democrats are justifiably feeling better about their odds than could have been imaginable in November 2024.

What we can comfortably say right now however, is that the House is effectively decided, while the Senate rests on seven or eight races separated by just a few points, and the majority of them are in states Trump carried by double digits just two years ago. And yet, the fact that Democrats are even competitive in these states is remarkable, and a testament to how a president’s declining approval can drag down his party’s entire ticket.

Ultimately, while we must wait to see how America decides in just one day, based on available polls, the 2026 midterms are shaping up to be one of the most widely competitive — at least on the Senate level — in modern history, and could be one of the most unprecedented.

If Democrats can win this expanded map, that could herald a change in American politics, with progressives likely gaining at the expense of moderates.

Alternatively, if Republicans manage to hold the Senate despite the national environment, that would be a considerable blow for Democrats — moderates and progressives alike — heading into the unofficial start of the 2028 campaign.

Douglas E. Schoen and Carly Cooperman are pollsters and partners with the public opinion company Schoen Cooperman Research based in New York. They are co-authors of the book “ America: Unite or Die. ”