The Movement: Israeli election could bridge widening gap within GOP

Voters in Israel are going to the polls Tuesday, in the first election since the Hamas terrorist attacks on Oct. 7, 2023.

The contest is high stakes for Israeli citizens, who have a chance to weigh in on incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ’s handling of national security around the tragedy and his leadership in the subsequent wars. But it’s also a pivotal moment for Israel’s backers in the U.S., especially younger Republicans, who have diverged in recent years from their older peers when it comes to supporting Netanyahu.

That divide is even showing up in the White House, where President Trump endorsed Netanyahu last week, but Vice President Vance declined to do so. That suggests Vance is hoping to distance himself from the Trump-Netanyahu alignment, which helped to nudge the U.S. into the Iran war. Other isolationist conservatives, like Tucker Carlson and Steve Bannon , have turned to openly criticizing Netanyahu and the U.S.-Israel relationship.

Earlier estimates showed a tight race between Netanyahu and Gadi Eisenkot , former head of the Israeli Defense Forces. Official results will be published Wednesday.

Analysts say that while the outcome likely won’t change much about Israel’s policy in Gaza or Iran, a new personality atop the government could smooth U.S.-Israel relations in the eyes of young conservatives, many of whom have soured on Netanyahu in recent years.

Justin Logan , director of defense and foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute, said the difference between Trump and Vance reflects a generational divide in the GOP over Israel, broadly, and Netanyahu more specifically.

“I would say pretty much everybody on the right under 50 or so, who isn’t really strongly invested in Israel qua Israel, is sort of exhausted of the Middle East, is sort of exhausted of wars in the Middle East, didn’t understand the case why we attacked Iran in February of this year, and is sort of averse to deep involvement in the Middle East,” said Logan. “Whereas I think it’s a very boomerish inclination to say, you know, ‘Israel’s our greatest ally. We need to back them up on all their various endeavors in the Middle East.’”

Driving the schism, Logan and others said, is a growing tendency among younger Republicans to be isolationists. Those conservatives grew up around marathon wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and now want U.S. resources to be directed at domestic problems, rather than those around the world.

That isolationist streak doesn’t necessarily signal an erosion in support for Israel’s right to exist, he added. Generally, more Republicans of all ages have a favorable view of Israel than an unfavorable one. But among those under 50, 57 percent have an unfavorable view , according to Pew data from earlier this year.

That divide could be bridged by a new standard bearer for the Israeli regime. Trump has largely aligned himself with Netanyahu, especially since the Iran War. But as Trump’s time in office wanes, the new generation of Republicans is looking to throw that general support for Israel toward someone else.

“In American politics it’s complicated because Israel is popular in certain circles on the right in particular, and so people kind of hold Netanyahu up as an icon,” said Ben Friedman , policy director at Defense Priorities, a think tank focused on restraint-based foreign policy.

“But I think a lot of people, because of the way politics have shifted on Israel, would like to see a different prime minister of Israel, would like to see a government in Israel that creates less animosity in the base,” Friedman said. “Things might be easier if Netanyahu lost, I think, for a lot of people on the right.”

That dynamic does not necessarily go both ways. Joel Rubin , a former deputy assistant secretary of State under President Obama, said that because Trump is still broadly popular in Israel, the election is not likely to curb or change the Israeli government’s warmth toward him. And it could be a chance for Trump to make another run at brokering peace, since a non-Netanyahu government could be more open to moves that would soften relations with Israel’s Arab neighbors.

“If Trump is deft, he’ll end up likely still finding a lot of conversions and maybe even some more freedom of action with the Israelis who are open to, under Eisenkot, doing some things that Netanyahu currently isn’t in the West Bank and in Gaza that may help with some of the Arab states as well in the region,” said Rubin. “So I think Trump kind of comes out ahead in either direction on this one.”

In general, whoever wins the election is not likely to change Israel’s military strategy. Gone are the days of a left-wing party in Israel that supports a two-state solution with Palestine, or diplomatic detente with Iran, Friedman said. But a new regime could appear softer than the hawkish Netanyahu.

“The current Israeli government, I think, really exists on war — it’s like a coalition held together by conflict,” Friedman said. “So even if the left is not particularly dovish by normal standards, it’s going to be presumably less enthusiastic about continuing to bomb Iran as Netanyahu always pushes.

“I think their sort of dream scenario would be going back to peace,” he added, “not this sort of continual warfare that seems to be the model that Netanyahu wants, that Trump has bought into.”

RAMASWAMY SAYS AMY ACTON CAMPAIGN STARTED IT

Vivek Ramaswamy, the Republican candidate for governor in Ohio, is doubling down on a controversial ad he released earlier this month that features the estranged mother of his Democratic opponent, Amy Acton, calling Acton a liar.

That ad has since garnered bipartisan blowback because it touches a sensitive note in Acton’s childhood history. Her birth mother, Donna Arthur , stayed married to Acton’s stepfather even after he was charged with sexually abusing Acton when she was 12 years old. The younger Acton has not spoken to or seen Arthur in many years.

The incumbent governor, Republican Gov. Mike DeWine , called the ad “deeply troubling” and urged Ramaswamy’s campaign to take it down. Sen. Jon Husted (R-Ohio) , who is in a tight Senate race, said he would not have run such an ad. Trump and Vance have both stood by it.

Ramaswamy is offering no apologies, defending the ad and expanding its reach with millions of dollars in ad buys. Now he’s offering a new twist, saying Acton started it with the personal attack ads. He said on Fox News on Sunday that Acton had first used his own mother in an attack ad against him.

“I’ll tell you the advice I was raised in: You never start a fight, but if you find yourself in one, you finish it, and you have to stand for what is right and what is true,” Ramaswamy said. “They’ve attacked me. They’ve defamed my mother to media silence. It’s unbelievable. And yet, at the same time, they’ll trot out anything to attack a Republican.”

The Acton campaign did publish a press release in August going after Ramaswamy for hiring his own mother at the biotech company he founded and then touting her research about an Alzheimer’s drug — which later failed clinical trials — to raise the company’s stock price. A nonpartisan fact checker, PolitiFact, found that the Acton campaign’s claims that Ramaswamy “pushed a drug that he knew didn’t work” and “made hundreds of millions of dollars scamming people” were “ mostly false .”

Trump said the election in Brazil, in which the incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva defeated right-wing challenger Flávio Bolsonaro , was “another rigged election.” Bolsonaro is the son of Jair Bolsonaro , the former leader who was close with Trump. More here .

Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.), who is in a tough reelection race, took a page from Trump’s book by hitting the McDonald’s drive-thru circuit. He was seen serving customers at a McDonald’s in Haverstraw, telling one “the extra SALT is in the bag,” a reference to the state and local tax (SALT) deduction cap he pushed to raise last year. Video here .

A group of Catholic bishops issued a statement saying they regret a White House photo op with Trump after a meeting last week. The bishops said they had expected the meeting to be private until the White House quickly released photo and video on social media. More here .

November 10-12: Conservative groups including Heritage, The Claremont Institute and the Conservative Partnership Institute gather at The Forum, a new national conference for conservatives featuring a range of speakers, including Scott Jennings , James Braid , Nick Freitas and Spencer Pratt . Details here .

November 18: The Foundation for Research on Equal Opportunity hosts Freedom & Progress 2026, a gathering of leaders committed to expanding opportunity through free enterprise, innovation, pluralism, and individual liberty. Details here .