Some Republicans are planning to skip Trump’s GOP convention

Republicans are cautiously approaching the party’s midterm convention next week as President Trump spirals in polls, with some candidates and lawmakers deciding to skip the gathering all together.

The dynamic underscores how worried Republicans are about Trump’s own brand ahead of midterm elections in which the party is in danger of losing the House and Senate majorities.

Joshua Blank, research director for the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin, said Trump’s poll numbers are bad enough that GOP politicians are considering whether they need to distance themselves from their party leader.

“Hugging Donald Trump is really good in the Republican primary. It remains to be seen whether it’s helpful in a competitive general election in 2026,” he said.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune (S.D.) and House Speaker Mike Johnson (La.) are among the top GOP figures expected to attend .

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, who is running behind in some polls to Democrat James Talarico in a key Senate contest, will be at the event. Trump has said Paxton will be a main focus .

A source familiar told The Hill that the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) distributed more than 2,000 tickets for the convention and that around 100 members and candidates were confirmed to attend.

But a Politico survey of more than 70 Republican candidates and lawmakers found that more than half planned to skip the event, including Reps. Tom Barrett (R-Mich.) and Zach Nunn (R-Iowa), who are battling for reelection in vital toss-up districts.

Several lawmakers also told The Bulwark this week that they had conflicts. Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Iowa) said her time would be better spent back home, and Rep. Rob Bresnahan (R-Pa.) said he hadn’t yet made plans to attend. Both are running in toss-up contests in states Trump won in 2024.

Part of the hesitation may be the event’s high price tag for lawmakers.

While members of the public can win a chance to attend through a free ticket lottery, House members are reportedly expected to contribute a minimum $25,000 to take part. However, a source familiar told The Hill that past conventions have had more expensive rates.

The event’s timing has raised questions about whether the first-of-its-kind convention will get the airplay Republicans desire.

The two-day event, stretching late into the evenings Sept. 9-10, kicks off two days after a long Labor Day weekend and conflicts with the first two NFL games of the season.

The New England Patriots are playing the Seattle Seahawks in a Super Bowl rematch on Sept. 9, the same evening Vice President Vance is scheduled to take the stage. The San Francisco 49ers will play the Los Angeles Rams as Trump delivers the keynote address the next day.

Attendees flying out Friday will do so on the 25th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks. Several northeastern lawmakers told Politico that they were skipping the convention because of commitments in their districts related to the commemoration.

Democrats say those issues mask the real reason many Republicans will skep the convention: Trump and his polling.

“If they’re being honest, no rational Republican who has a truly contested race in November wants to attend a midterm @GOP convention in Dallas shortly after Labor Day that will feature a deeply unpopular @POTUS,” ex-Obama administration strategist David Axelrod said in a post online .

But Republicans push back on the notion any lawmakers are avoiding the convention for political purposes, noting Trump’s role as a turnout machine for the party.

“The outreach and enthusiasm to attend, participate, and speak at this historic midterm convention has been incredible, from Members of Congress to Republican candidates to everyday Americans,” Republican National Committee (RNC) press secretary Natalie Baldassarre said in a statement.

“Republicans across the country are rallying behind President Trump’s America First agenda that’s brought lower drug prices, lower taxes, and a secure border, and this convention will provide the momentum needed to expand our majorities in November,” she said.

A GOP source suggested that the benefits of Trump being at the convention and at the ballot box outweigh the risk of him being a liability for other candidates.

“A lot of them are people who are not engaged in politics,” the GOP source said of the party’s base. “They will only come out and vote if Donald Trump comes out and says I need you to go to the ballot box.”

“We are putting the president on the ballot as much as we can,” the source said. “The Democrats are going to brand us with Trump so you might as well embrace it and get the benefits that come with it.”

Trump has held campaign-style events in some battleground districts this cycle including New York’s 27th Congressional District, which is represented by Rep. Mike Lawler (R). The New York congressman is considered one of the most vulnerable GOP incumbents this cycle and was one of a handful of House Republicans to win reelection in a district that former Vice President Kamala Harris won in 2024.

“He has no problem being there with the president,” said one national Republican operative, referring to Lawler campaigning with Trump.

Still, attending what is being billed by some as a “Trump-a-palooza” could be a liability for some Republicans given Trump’s low approval ratings.

Decision Desk HQ’s polling averages show Trump is 18 points underwater, with just 39 percent of Americans approving of his job handling the presidency. The Iran war is unpopular , and voters are feeling the strain of rising prices and a high cost of living.

While many vulnerable Republicans are embracing the president’s support , others are keeping him at arm’s length .

Sen. Susan Collins (R), for example , has criticized Trump’s tariffs on Canada and voted recently against Trump’s pick for attorney general. She’s in a tough reelection battle in Maine.

Colleagues have also said that senators in tough races, including Sens. Jon Husted (R-Ohio) and Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska), are struggling against Trump’s low approval ratings in their toss-up races.

Husted plans to attend the convention, according to his campaign, as does battleground Senate hopeful former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.). Axios also reported in July that Sullivan will take part.

Others say the convention represents an opportunity.

“We’re going to have quite a few candidates on stage giving speeches,” the national Republican operative said. “This is a huge opportunity for them to broaden their platform on the national level and use Trump as an asset.”

Republican strategists shrug off concerns about low attendance.

“It’s a big deal. It’s the RNC. It’s Dallas. It’s Texas. The president and the VP are there,” Texas Republican strategist Brendan Steinhauser said. “I would expect to see a lot of the big Republican donor types. And yeah, I do think that everybody running, certainly locally, as a Republican is going to be there.”

With roughly 60 days to go before the election, candidates “really need to be doing one of two things, and that’s getting votes or raising money,” noted Texas Republican consultant Vinny Minchillo. “This event is a good opportunity for candidates to do both.”