New poll shows the Texas governor’s race flipping before early voting

The Texas governor's race has flipped days before early voting begins.

A new ReconMR Oct. 13 poll shows Gov. Greg Abbott has edged ahead of Democrat Gina Hinojosa after trailing her by four points in a September ReconMR poll.

"In an unusual predicament for the three-term governor, Abbott enters the final weeks of the campaign locked in the tightest of battles with Hinojosa, leading her by a single point, 48-47%," said Lindsey Hendren, a senior research analyst at ReconMR. "The race remains much more competitive than many anticipated earlier this year, or even just a few months ago."

Here is a closer look at the poll and other recent October polls.

Greg Abbott, Gina Hinojosa statistically tied in Texas governor's race

The ReconMR Texas Poll surveyed 617 Texas likely voters and has an overall margin of error of 4.4 percentage points.

The poll found that both candidates hold their partisan bases, with Abbott leading Republicans 92% to 5% and Hinojosa leading Democrats 94% to 2%. Hinojosa leads likely independents 57% to 34%.

"So while Hinojosa has work to do in becoming more known to voters, Abbott needs to cut into Hinojosa's lead among independent voters if he's to have another term as Texas governor," Hendren said.

Abbott's job approval rating also remains in the red, with 48% approve and 51% disapprove — a shift from 45% to 53% in September. His favorability rating sits at 46% favorable to 50% unfavorable — down from 45% favorable to 53% unfavorable.

The poll also found Hinojosa at 44% favorability, with 37% unfavorable and 20% not knowing enough to have an opinion. In September, it was 48% to 27%, with 25% not knowing enough to have an opinion

"Abbott has a 25-point lead in rural Texas, while Hinojosa leads 75-22% in Austin, 52-44% in Houston, and 53- 42% in San Antonio/South. They're tied at 48% among likely voters in Dallas-Fort Worth," Hendren said.

UMass Lowell (Oct. 8) — Abbott 48%, Hinojosa 44%.

YouGov poll (Oct. 6 ) — Hinojosa 48%, Abbott 47%.

The New York Times (Oct. 3) — Hinojosa 49%, Abbott 46%.

Fox News (Oct. 1) — Abbott 52%, Hinojosa 47%.

Early voting is from Oct. 19 to 30. Election Day is Nov. 3.

Mateo Rosiles is the Texas Connect reporter for USA TODAY and its regional papers in Texas, based in Austin. Got a news tip for him? Email him at mrosiles@usatodayco.com.