8 House races shift in Democrats’ favor: Sabato’s Crystal Ball

Election handicapper Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifted eight House races in the direction of Democrats on Wednesday, underscoring seven weeks ahead of the November midterm elections that the number of competitive districts is growing.

Two races shifted from “leans Republican” to “toss-ups” in the handicapper’s ratings — the open seat in Iowa’s 2nd Congressional District, and in Michigan’s 4th Congressional District, where Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Mich.) is running for reelection.

Sabato’s Crystal Ball managing editor Kyle Kondik wrote that Huizenga’s race “appears to be a highly competitive contest” in a district President Trump won in 2024, with “enough uncertainty” to shift the rating.

A third race shifted from toss-up to “leans Democratic.”

That race is in New Jersey’s 7th Congressional District, where Rep. Tom Kean Jr. (R-N.J.), who was absent from Congress for months as he was treated for depression earlier this year, could be in trouble. He’s running against Democrat Rebecca Bennett.

“Kean’s approval numbers in the poll were actually worse than President Trump’s,” Kondik wrote. “NJ-7 is the kind of affluent, high educational-attainment district that Republicans have struggled to hold in the Trump era; the district narrowly backed Trump in 2024 but seems poised for a swing back.”

In the other five races, GOP candidates remain favored, but they are seen as more competitive than before.

The race for Colorado’s 5th Congressional District moved from “likely Republican” to “leans Republican.” Kondik wrote that this district has become “more competitive in the Trump era,” as Rep. Jeff Crank (R-Colo.) faces a stronger challenge this year compared to 2024 from Colorado House candidate Jessica Killin.

“Republican outside groups, including No Going Back PAC (effectively a rebranded arm of MAGA Inc., the president’s Super PAC) are spending to defend Crank,” Kondik wrote. “This one merits a more competitive rating even as Crank is still favored, so it moves from Likely Republican to Leans Republican.”

Sabato tweaked Rep. French Hill’s (R) race for Arkansas’s 2nd Congressional District and Rep. Mike Turner (R)’s race for Ohio’s 10th Congressional District from “safe Republican” to “likely Republican.”

The open seats for New York’s 21st Congressional District and Nevada’s 2nd Congressional District also shifted from “safe Republican” to “likely Republican.” Both Reps. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) and Mark Amodei (R-Nev.) are not seeking reelection in those respective districts.

The Hill’s partner election handicapper Decision Desk HQ, a partner with The Hill, projects a 68 percent chance that Democrats will reclaim control of the House, while Democrats and Republicans have a nearly split chance to control the Senate 51-49.