Cook Political Report moves 18 House seats toward Democrats

The Cook Political Report, an election handicapper, shifted 18 House seats toward Democrats’ favor in key battleground districts.

The changes show how unfavorable the political environment continues to be for GOP candidates amid the war in Iran and the state of the economy.

Republican Reps. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (Iowa), Zach Nunn (Iowa), Ryan Mackenzie (Pa.), Scott Perry (Pa.), Bill Huizenga (Mich.), Rob Wittman (Va.), Brian Fitzpatrick (Pa.), French Hill (Ark.) and Victoria Spartz (Ind.) all saw their races shifted toward Democrats.

At the same time, Democratic Reps. Susie Lee (Nev.), Tom Suozzi (N.Y.), Laura Gillen (N.Y.), Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (Wash.), Don Davis (N.C.) saw their races shift further in their party’s favor.

There are four open races in Nebraska’s 2nd District, Iowa’s 2nd District, Kentucky’s 6th District and Maine’s 2nd District that also shifted toward Democrats.

“With these new moves, we’re also adjusting our range: the most likely outcome is now that Democrats will pick up nine to 19 seats,” Cook Political Report’s U.S. House of Representatives editor Erin Covey wrote in an analysis. “At this point, Democrats only need to win 20 percent of the Toss Ups to get to a majority, assuming the seats that favor Democrats in our ratings all break their way.”

Based on Cook’s prediction, Democrats would hold anywhere from 224 to 234 seats.

Many congressional districts Cook Political Report shifted were ones that President Trump carried in each of his presidential bids, but growing dissatisfaction with his handling of the economy and foreign policy has created openings for Democrats in red-leaning districts.

“On paper, this open seat should be difficult for a Democrat to win,” Covey wrote about Kentucky’s 6th Congressional District. “Trump carried the district by 15 points, and [Rep. Andy Barr], now running for Senate, won reelection by 27 points. But polling from both parties shows Democratic prosecutor Zach Dembo and former Republican state Sen. Ralph Alvarado neck-and-neck.”

Trump’s economic approval rating has also dropped to historic lows amid the unpopular war against Iran, which is partly responsible for regular gas prices increasing to an average of $4.37 a gallon Friday, more than a 40 percent increase from a year ago, according to AAA .

The price of diesel, which is a primary fuel source for public transportation and the trucking industry, was up to around an average of $6.28 per gallon Friday. High prices of diesel impact rural parts of the country more.

Tariffs against U.S. trading partners, particularly Canada, have also hit states like Michigan , Wisconsin and Maine hard as U.S. trade with Canada totaled an estimated $872.3 billion in 2025, according to the U.S. Trade Representative’s Office .