Sabato’s Crystal Ball moves 16 House races toward Democrats

Nonpartisan election forecaster Sabato’s Crystal Ball is shifting more than a dozen House races toward Democrats in the final week of the campaign , another sign of a worsening political environment for Republicans.

Crystal Ball, a division of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, has moved dozens of races toward Democrats in recent weeks, including nearly 50 races in the month of October alone.

The race changes include moving a few deep-red seats into the “toss up” column. Open congressional districts in Kentucky and Montana, as well as seats with GOP incumbents in Missouri, Virginia, Colorado and Pennsylvania moved into coin flip territory. Many of the seats Crystal Ball rates as a toss-up were places Trump carried by double digits in 2024.

One notable race that moved from toss-up to “leans Democratic” is Texas’s 15th Congressional District, where Rep. Monica De la Cruz (R) is facing a tough challenge from Tejano music star Bobby Pulido (D). Unlike the other South Texas districts where Democrats are trying to hold onto redrawn seats, the 15th is a Republican-held district that Trump won by nearly 20 points in 2024.

A couple of House seats in Pennsylvania with GOP incumbents — the 1st and the 8th — join two other competitive seats to move in Democrats’ direction. Crystal Ball shows that Democrats could pick up as many as four House seats in Pennsylvania alone — more than the three they need to flip control of the chamber.

The forecaster already gave Democrats the edge in more than enough seats to take control of the House. Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ), a partner of The Hill, gives Democrats an 80 percent chance of a House majority.

Crystal Ball also moved three Senate races and two gubernatorial contests in Democrats’ direction.

The Florida Senate race moved from “safe Republican” to “likely Republican,” with Crystal Ball citing early voting numbers that look encouraging for Democrats.

Sen. Darline Graham’s bid to win a full term in the Senate moved from “likely Republican” to “leans Republican,” as polling in the Palmetto State shows her in a closer-than-expected race against Democrat Annie Andrews.

And in the North Carolina Senate race, Crystal Ball moved its rating even further in Democrats’ direction from “leans Democratic” to “likely Democratic.” The Tar Heel State remains Democrats’ best pickup opportunity in the Senate, with Gov. Roy Cooper leading in the race for the open seat.

Crystal Ball’s Kyle Kondik and Miles Coleman wrote in their analysis that while polling shows a close race for the Senate, Democrats are ahead.

“As of this point, we are thinking the Democrats have the inside track to a Senate majority, albeit narrowly at 51 or 52 seats,” Kondik and Coleman wrote. “But these races are all close, and we want to take in all of the final information before pushing the remaining Toss-ups.”

Crystal Ball is one of the only major forecasters to push all of its toss-up races to lean toward one party before Election Day.

DDHQ gives Democrats a 57 percent chance to control the Senate.

The gubernatorial contests shifting toward Democrats are in Arizona, where Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs’s reelection bid shifted from “leans Democratic” to “likely Democratic,” and in Vermont, where Republican Gov. Phil Scott’s race shifted from “likely Republican” to “leans Republican.”

Vermont is typically a solidly Democratic state, though Scott, a moderate Republican, has easily won reelection in the past. Recent polls suggest he may be in a competitive race, including a State Navigate poll released Tuesday showing Scott up by 3 points among likely voters.