The 5 governor’s mansions most likely to flip in November

Three dozen governor’s mansions are on the ballot this fall, with several battleground contests that could shape national politics through the end of the second Trump administration.

Decision Desk HQ’s (DDHQ) forecast has Democrats favored in 21 of the 36 races, with a chance of flipping four GOP-held seats in Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and Georgia — while Republicans could pull off their own flip in Kansas.

Some of those races could also mark a few firsts: If Democrat Amy Acton wins in Ohio, she’ll be the second woman to serve as governor of the Buckeye State but the first to win a full four-year term. Democrat Keisha Lance Bottom would be the first woman and first African American to serve as Georgia’s executive if she wins next month.

If Republican Vivek Ramaswamy won in Ohio, he’d become the first Indian American elected to the position and the first male Millennial to win a governor’s mansion. If Republican Rick Jackson wins in Georgia, it’s believed he would be the first billionaire elected governor in the state. And if Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins flips Alaska’s seat, he’d be the youngest governor in the Last Frontier’s history.

Here are the five governor’s mansions most likely to flip this fall:

Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly is term-limited in a state that President Trump won by 16 points in 2024, which offers Republicans a likely pickup opportunity as Kansas Senate President Ty Masterson faces off against Democratic state Sen. Cindy Holscher.

The two candidates have tagged each other as “extreme” and “radical” at a Kansas State Fair debate last month, with Masterson attacking Holscher for changing her position on data center incentives. The pair have also tangled over addressing higher taxes, according to the Kansas Reflector .

Meanwhile, Holscher criticized her Republican opponent over abortion access in the state and has sought to tie Masterson to former Gov. Sam Brownback (R), whose time in the governor’s mansion was rocked by unstable state finances after he rolled back state taxes but offered no policies to bring in state revenue, according to the Kansas Reflector , prompting the state to punt projects and cut spending.

The president rallied in the Sunflower State on Monday as Senate race between Sen. Roger Marshall (R) and Democrat Adam Hamilton has turned into an unexpected battleground contest. Both Masterson and Marshall attended Trump’s rally in Park City, Kansas, where the president also announced a new $8-billion dollar Harvest Fuel Relief Program aimed at easing diesel costs for farmers.

A mix of Trump’s low approval ratings, high cost of living expenses and several controversies over Marshall’s spending and litigation against former patients have created a tighter than anticipated Senate contest.

While voters often differentiate candidates in statewide races compared to federal races – candidates typically toe party lines on federal candidates while usually being a little more open to crossing party lines in races for governor and other statewide elections – Marshall’s challenging reelection is an unhelpful dynamic for Masterson.

Cook Political Report rates the race as lean Republican. DDHQ gives Masterson a 69 percent probability of winning the seat, with his advantage narrowing in recent weeks.

Iowans haven’t elected a Democrat as governor in two decades, yet the party is feeling bullish about its chances of changing that next month in the race to replace outgoing Gov. Kim Reynolds (R).

Iowa State Auditor Rob Sand is facing off against Republican businessman Zach Lahn for the governor’s seat, with polling consistently showing Sand ahead. Sand has cast Lahn as a carpetbagger given the businessman, who co-founded a private school in Kansas, travels between the two states to see some of his children. The Kansas Reflector reported that Lahn voted in the Sunflower State as recently as 2022.

Lahn has said he travels to Kansas to be present in his children’s lives and has a “blended family.”

Sand has also touted his record in the state auditor’s office and has taken shots at both parties as he positions himself as a bipartisan public steward.

Lahn, who is supported by allies of the Make America Healthy Again movement for his focus on cancer rates and water quality, has rebuked Sand over his attacks on his travels to Kansas. He’s also attacked the Iowa auditor general over the family wealth of his wife, Christine Lauridsen Sand, the chief executive of Lauridsen Group. Lahn has invoked the culture wars, including tying Sand to transgender issues and has hit him on COVID-19 pandemic precautions taken to curb the spread of the virus.

Cook Political Report rates the race as lean Democratic. DDHQ gives Sand a 72 percent probability of winning, after a significant gain since the end of summer.

The Ohio governor’s mansion could flip for the first time in two decades as Democrat Amy Acton and Republican Vivek Ramaswamy tussle in an ugly fight for outgoing Republican Gov. Mike DeWine’s seat.

The race took a turn this week after Ramaswamy elevated a video featuring Acton’s estranged mother, Donna Arthur, who urged Ohioans not to vote for the Democrat.

The ad was met with backlash as figures on both sides of the aisle argued it went too far, given Acton’s contentious history with her mother.

Acton, a physician and former director of the Ohio Department of Health under DeWine, has previously described a childhood plagued by abuse, neglect and rape at the hands of her stepfather, who pleaded not guilty and was indicted by a grand jury.

Experts saw the ad as an effort by Ramaswamy to make waves in the closing weeks of the tight campaign.

Acton has edged ahead in DDHQ’s latest polling averages, up by 3.4 percent over Ramaswamy. DDHQ rates it a coin-flip with Acton narrowly favored, giving the Democrat a 60 percent probability of a flip.

Cook Political Report also considers the race a toss-up, after shifting it away from Republicans this summer.

Democrats have been locked out of the Alaska governor’s mansion for more than 20 years, but this year’s highly competitive race could break that streak.

Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, a former state lawmaker, is up against Republican Bernadette Wilson and two others in the Last Frontier’s four-way, ranked-choice general election. Democrat Tom Begich advanced from the primary, but dropped out and endorsed Kreiss-Tomkins, helping to clear a path.

If elected, 37-year-old Kreiss-Tomkins would become the youngest governor in Alaska’s history and the first Democrat to win the seat since 1998. Independent Bill Walker served a term as governor in 2014.

Cook Political Report rates the race as lean Democratic, after shifting it out of the toss-up column earlier this month. Alaska is also host to a highly competitive Senate race, but the election handicapper cited GOP sources in the state as being “more worried” about losing the governor’s mansion.

DDHQ’s forecast gives Kreiss-Tomkins a 62 percent probability of a win.

The race to replace term-limited Gov. Brian Kemp (R) in Georgia is deadlocked between Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms and Republican Rick Jackson.

The latest Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll found Jackson at 46 percent and Bottoms at 45 percent, a statistical dead heat.

If Bottoms can break through, she could become the Peach State’s first Black governor and first woman governor – and end the GOP’s two-decade winning streak for the office.

But Jackson, a billionaire, has the clear fundraising advantage as Election Day nears, and has spent more than $108 million of his own money on the race.

Politico reported on Tuesday that Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker (D) was sending $1 million to boost Bottoms’ bid.

Cook Political Report rates the race as a toss-up. DDHQ gives it the same rating, with Bottoms narrowly favored at a 54 percent probability, after Jackson gained some ground in recent weeks.

Welcome to The Hill’s On The Ballot. We’re Julia Mueller and Caroline Vakil — reach out to us on X ( @jmthewriter + @CarolineVakil) or via email ( jmueller@thehill.com + cvakil@thehill.com.)

Talarico, Paxton in dead heat for Texas Senate, Abbott leads governor’s race: Poll

Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton are in a dead heat for the Senate in Texas, according to new polling of one of the cycle’s most closely watched contests.

Talarico notched 48 percent to Paxton’s 46 percent in new numbers from Emerson College Polling and The Hill, a result within the poll’s margin of error. Another 5 percent were undecided, and 1 percent picked Libertarian Ted Brown.

When undecided voters were asked which candidate they lean toward, Talarico’s support jumped to 49 percent, Paxton to 48 percent and Brown to 3 percent.

“Since August, Talarico’s support has slowly inched up by about a point each month, from 46% to 48%, while Paxton has hovered between 46% and 47%,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling.

Meanwhile, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) boasted a slight lead in the Emerson polling of the gubernatorial race as he tries for a fourth term.

Abbott scored 49 percent to Democrat Gina Hinojosa’s 45 percent, while Libertarian Pat Dixon snagged 1 percent and another 4 percent were undecided.

When undecided voters were forced to a choice, Abbott jumped to 51 percent, Hinojosa to 47 percent and Dixon to 2 percent.

Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) rates the Texas Senate a toss-up, with Talarico narrowly favored. The governor’s race has a “lean Republican” rating, a step short of being a toss-up.

The Emerson College Polling Texas survey was conducted Oct. 17-19 among 1,000 likely Texas voters and has a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error, of plus or minus 3.1 percent.

Michigan Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed is coming under intense attack from President Trump, his Republican opponent Mike Rogers and other Republicans, including Ted Cruz who are trying to link him to the Muslim Brotherhood. Read more from The Hill’s Alexander Bolton.

Republicans are banking on last minute injections of cash to boost the party’s most vulnerable candidates less than two weeks out from Election Day, The Hill’s Julia Mueller and Manchester report.

The political polling industry is under new fire after a second company, Wedgewood Polls, on Tuesday acknowledged it had falsified data in a series of polls released over the past year, The Hill’s Jared Gans reports.

As the midterm cycle heats up, we’re asking folks in the elections space what they’re consuming on and off the campaign trail.

Annie Andrews is a pediatrician and Democrat running for U.S. Senate in South Carolina.

What album or podcast do you have on repeat?

What TV show are you watching right now?

What’s your favorite restaurant in South Carolina?

Oct. 22: Trump rallies in Sioux City, Iowa

Oct. 22: Vice President Vance rallies in North Platte, Neb.

Oct. 22: WXIN/WTTV holds Indiana Secretary of State debate at 7 p.m. EDT

Oct. 22: WSYR hosts New York 22 nd District debate at 7 p.m. EDT

Oct. 22: WDKY holds Kentucky 6 th District debate at 7 p.m. EDT

Oct. 22: Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rallies in Portland, Maine, for Senate Democratic candidate Troy Jackson

Oct: 23: Trump rallies in Fort Meyers, Fla.

Oct. 24: Former President Obama campaigns for Democratic Senate and gubernatorial candidates in Detroit and Cleveland

Oct. 25: Trump rallies in Port Huron, Mich.

Oct. 26 : Trump rallies in Corinth, Miss.

Humidity caused Brandon couples mail-in ballots to seal before they could vote ( WFLA )

Texas Republicans used to debate. Not this cycle. ( Texas Monthly )

The data-center rebellion is just beginning ( The Atlantic )