In Texas, 3 new polls show Talarico with slight lead

New polls show tight contests in Texas in the race for U.S. Senate and governor.

Three polls released Tuesday and Wednesday show state Rep. James Talarico (D) leading Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) in the closely watched Texas Senate race.

The Texas Politics Project (TPP) at the University of Texas found Talarico leading Paxton by 3 percentage points among likely voters, 50 percent to 47 percent. That is the same margin TPP had Talarico ahead by among registered voters in August.

A ReconMR/Siena poll found Talarico ahead by 4 points among likely voters, 48 percent to 44 percent, closer than his 6-point lead in the September poll. And a Marist University poll found Talarico leading by 2 points, 47 percent to 45 percent, also closer than his 6-point lead in the Marist’s September poll.

No Democrat has won statewide in Texas since 1994, and the party has not won a Senate race in the Lone Star State since 1988. This year, Talarico’s consistent lead in public polling has the party feeling optimistic about its odds.

The nonpartisan election site Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ), a partner of The Hill, gives Talarico a 56 percent chance to flip the Texas Senate seat. He leads by an average of 2.5 points in DDHQ’s polling average.

The Senate race has been considered competitive for much of the 2026 cycle. The Texas governor’s race, on the other hand, was initially viewed as a sure bet for Republican Gov. Greg Abbott.

Abbott, who is running for a fourth term in office, has seen his polling lead steadily shrink in recent months as his Democratic opponent, state Rep. Gina Hinojosa, continues to gain ground .

The latest polling shows a tight race. TPP’s poll has Hinojosa leading Abbott by 1 point, 49 percent to 48 percent, while ReconMR/Siena has Abbott up by 1 point, 48 percent to 47 percent, and Marist shows Abbott up by 4 points, 49 percent to 45 percent.

Democrats have not won a governor’s race in Texas since 1990.

Early voting begins in Texas on Monday. In 2024, roughly 80 percent of all votes in Texas were cast early. Turnout broke records in this year’s primary voting.