Sullivan trails Peltola in Alaska Senate contest: AARP poll

Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska) trails former Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Alaska) by 5 percentage points in the Alaska Senate race, according to a new poll.

An AARP poll conducted by pollsters Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research released Thursday showed Peltola ahead of the GOP senator at 46 percent support to his 41 percent, with 7 percent of respondents undecided.

A separate 4 percent of respondents supported Dan J. Sullivan Jr., who’s listed on the ballot as having no party affiliation, and 3 percent supported Republican Gerald Heikes.

When voters were asked whom they would choose as their second and third picks, Peltola maintains an edge in both rounds. Asked about a second pick, 50 percent of respondents said they would support the former House member while 43 percent rated the senator as their next pick.

Asked about a third choice, Peltola received 51 percent support while Sen. Sullivan received 45 percent.

Peltola performs 26 points better than Sullivan and the two other challengers among voters between the ages of 18 and 49, and she leads the senator by 32 points among independents and 18 points among women. Peltola also boasts higher enthusiasm among Democrats — 91 percent — compared with Sullivan’s performance among Republicans, which sits at 83 percent.

Meanwhile, Sullivan performs better with voters aged 50 years and older by 7 points, voters aged 65 and older by 8 points and men by 6 points.

Sullivan is fighting for a third term in the upper chamber against Peltola, who made headlines in 2022 when she defeated former Gov. Sarah Palin (R) to become the first Democrat in more than 50 years to win Alaska’s House seat during a special election.

She later won a full term for the seat in November but was ousted in 2024 by Rep. Nick Begich (R-Alaska).

Democrats see a strong recruit in Peltola — a rare Democrat to win statewide in the traditionally Republican state. Still, the state’s red leanings and Sullivan’s incumbency will make it an uphill battle for the party.

The AARP was conducted by Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research between Sept. 8-11, with 800 likely voters surveyed overall. The margin of error is 3.5 percentage points.