GOP election losses could scramble year-end funding fight

A bruising midterm election for Republicans could complicate Congress’s next government funding fight, as lawmakers return to Washington facing uncertainty over how President Trump will respond to potential GOP losses.

Congress has passed a stopgap measure, also known as a continuing resolution (CR), to keep the government funded through Dec. 11. Lawmakers in both parties said they expect to pass another short-term measure if they cannot finish work on all 12 appropriations bills — and that the odds of a shutdown remain low.

But the election results could reshape the political dynamics surrounding government funding, with Trump emerging as a wild card in negotiations if Republicans must grapple with the fallout of losing their congressional majority next year.

The final weeks of the year could represent Republicans’ last opportunity to advance some of their top legislative priorities before Democrats potentially take control of the House or Senate.

“I don’t know if there’s going to be a shutdown because I have no idea how crazy Republicans are going to act and the things that they’re going to present that are just going to make working families’ lives more difficult and more unaffordable,” said Rep. Bonnie Watson Coleman (D-N.J.), who sits on the House Appropriations Committee and is retiring at the end of this term. “I don’t know if they’re going to give a darn one way or the other after the election.”

“I suspect that Republicans are very interested in waiting to see what happens on Election Day, and therefore, what climate are they going to operate under. And I think that we should be prepared for some very difficult discussions and difficult maneuvers on the part of the Republicans,” Watson Coleman added.

At the same time, Republicans are pointing the finger at Democrats, arguing the ball is in their court.

“Whether or not there is a government shutdown is entirely up to Senate Democrats, who inflicted the longest government shutdown in U.S. history on the American people last year,” said Rep. Andrew Clyde (R-Ga.), also a member of the Appropriations Committee, in a statement.

“My priority remains passing the most conservative and fiscally responsible appropriations bills possible, and I look forward to completing that work when we return to Washington in the coming weeks,” he added.

Lawmakers will return to Washington on Nov. 9, giving them just two weeks to make progress on government funding before leaving again for Thanksgiving recess, with a crowded legislative agenda that includes the annual National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), a farm bill and other priorities.

The House has passed three of the 12 appropriations bills, while Senate appropriators have remained deadlocked over top-line spending levels. The bills the House has passed so far — funding military construction and the Department of Veterans Affairs, the State Department, and agriculture and rural development — represent some of the lowest-hanging fruit.

Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) is sure to face much tougher resistance — both from Democrats and within his party — when the topic shifts to funding other agencies, including the departments of Homeland Security, Defense and Health and Human Services.

The Hill has reached out to House Appropriations Committee Chair Tom Cole (R-Okla.) for comment.

Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.) said in a statement, “We think the odds of a shutdown are low.”

“Congress has made a tradition out of kicking the can down the road until December and passing a Christmas omnibus or continuing resolution,” she said.

Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Texas), ranking member of the Appropriations Subcommittee on Homeland Security, said Democrats’ position has been to finish all 12 bills rather than pass another CR.

“Now we don’t know how the Republicans are going to react, if they would like to finish it. I hope we can do that, and we’re going to do everything to work something out, so we don’t have another CR. If we have to, we’ll do it, but you know we prefer not to do it, and certainly we don’t want to have a shutdown. I don’t foresee a shutdown, but things have surprised me in Washington,” Cuellar said.

A government shutdown would likely have negative implications for both parties.

“When you have a shutdown, one party thinks they’re winning before they realize that we’re not winning, and then the other side thinks they’re winning before they realize that they were not winning, and that’s what you know makes those shutdowns long and dangerous. But at the end of the day, you know, it’s the American public that loses,” Cuellar said.

House Appropriations Committee ranking member Rosa DeLauro (D-Conn.) told The Hill in a statement she doesn’t think anyone wants a shutdown, and one is not likely.

“Both Democrats and Republicans have expressed a desire to finish full-year funding bills before the end of this calendar year, and I am ready to do just that,” DeLauro said. “The American people want us to address the cost of living crisis and rein in this corrupt administration. With Democrats widely expected to be in the majority, we want to hit the ground running in the new year — not be forced to finish the work this Congress failed to complete.”