A move closer to 7.5%: When will mortgage rates go down?

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Mortgage rates are nearly halfway to 8% and still rising. With the bond market still reeling from higher yields, what will it take for mortgage rates to reverse course and drop lower?

No. As of Oct. 8, Freddie Mac reported that the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate was 7.4%. This is 12 basis points higher than last week. At this time in October 2025, mortgage rates averaged 6.3%, 94 basis points lower.

The average 15-year fixed mortgage rate this week was 6.73%, up 13 basis points from last week, and 1.2% higher than this time last year.

Here's the Freddie Mac data on mortgage rates for the past 52 weeks as of Oct. 8, 2026:

30-year fixed-rate mortgage: 5.98% to 7.4%

15-year fixed-rate mortgage: 5.35% to 6.73%

Mortgage rates generally move in unison with bond market yields, which have soared on worries about inflation and the federal deficit. The 10-year Treasury yield , a benchmark for mortgage rates, has recently topped 24-year highs.

"Looking ahead to 2027, mortgage rates will be the primary driver of home price trends and sales activity," Dr. Selma Hepp, chief economist at Cotality, said in a release. "Many buyers halt their searches when rates exceed 7%, but as expectations shift from lower rates in 2027 to 'higher for longer,' some may opt to buy rather than keep waiting."

Hepp added that higher mortgage rates favor housing markets with lower entry prices and strong local job growth, rather than in former high-growth pandemic-era markets.

A HousingWire survey of mortgage lender executives on Oct. 1 found 70% expected mortgage rates to be near 7.5% or higher in 2027.

Following the Federal Reserve's first interest rate increase in three years, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC ) signaled it is leaning toward another 0.25% hike before year-end.

The federal funds rate tends to directly influence rates on shorter-term lending rates. While mortgage rates aren't directly based on the fed funds rate, they typically mirror fed funds rate trends.

So, if the fed funds rate goes up, mortgage rates are likely to follow.

While short-term lending rates closely follow the Fed funds rate, mortgage rates track the 10-year Treasury yield even more closely . As of Oct. 8, the 10-year Treasury yield opened at 5.32% — compared to 4.14% a year prior.

Now, you're probably wondering why today's mortgage rates aren't in the 5% range , right?

To determine current mortgage rates , lenders add a "spread" to the 10-year Treasury yield. The spread is simply the difference between the rates consumers pay and the 10-year Treasury rate. Without getting too much into the weeds, charging a spread helps mortgage lenders cover the costs of making loans to the public and the risk of providing them.

Mortgage spreads widened over the past few years, exceeding two percentage points. As bond yields have risen over the past six months, the spread has narrowed slightly but remains near two percentage points.

For example, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is 7.4%, and the 10-year Treasury yield is 5.32% — a spread of 2.08 percentage points.

Should you wait to buy until mortgage rates go down even more?

The cost of waiting to buy until affordability conditions improve is different for every buyer, says Jeremy Olsher, principal at Mizner Residential Group in Compass, Fla.

"For one person, another year of renting is perfectly sensible," he said. "For another, it means paying for a home that no longer fits their family while hoping the market delivers a better combination of rate, price, and inventory."

Olsher noted that prospective buyers should consider all of the costs of homeownership, including not only principal and interest, but insurance, property taxes, homeowner association fees, and maintenance.

"If that total is uncomfortable, the buyer may need to wait, reduce the price range or reconsider the type of property. The calculation should work without assuming that refinancing will become available later," Olsher said.

"Refinancing can be an option if rates eventually fall, but it should not be the reason someone accepts an unaffordable payment today," Olsher added. "The purchase needs to stand on its own using the numbers the buyer can actually secure."

Strategies for buyers in today's mortgage market

If you crave the comforts of homeownership, the best strategy in today's market may be to buy what you can afford. Whether that means a smaller house or a condo instead of a single-family home, owning something puts you in a position to start building equity.

Yes, shopping for the best mortgage lenders with low rates and fees is crucial when getting a mortgage. But to help you find your ideal home that balances affordability and desirability, it pays to adopt a curious mindset and consider lesser-discussed financial tools.

There's no better time to learn more about your local real estate market than today. By adopting a sense of curiosity, you could discover that your city has more to offer housing-wise than you previously thought.

You may want to take weekend excursions to lesser-known neighborhoods and suburban developments beyond the city limits. You never know what you'll find that could expand your idea of what "home" looks like — including new developments, school districts, and types of homes .

If you're looking to spend less on a home in today's mortgage market, a house needing a bit of TLC could help you do just that. Loans like the FHA 203(k) mortgage can roll your purchase and renovation costs into one convenient loan. When you qualify and have an accepted offer, your lender immediately funds the home's purchase price and puts the renovation costs into an escrow account. As you make repairs, funds get disbursed.

How would it feel to have a longer commute yet come home to a house you love? Master-planned communities tend to crop up outside major cities, offering various amenities like parks, shopping, and top-notch schools — all in exchange for a longer commute. These areas could look a lot more palatable if they offer commuting options like park-and-ride or commuter rail. Dare to consider parking the car and taking public transit if it could get you into the home of your dreams.

While shared walls, floors, and ceilings might not immediately scream "dream home," they could help you find an affordable home in a terrific area. Condominiums come in various shapes and sizes, from apartment-style flats to townhomes. Depending on the area, you might even score a small backyard. However, be sure to consider HOA fees when calculating your monthly payment.

While the monthly payment on a 15-year mortgage will be higher than a typical 30-year mortgage, these loans have plenty of upsides. Not only will you pay off your home on a speedier timeline, but you'll also likely score a lower interest rate and save a ton on interest over the life of your loan.

To make today's mortgage rates more palatable, look into rate buydown options. An interest rate buydown lets you pay cash up front in exchange for a reduced interest rate on your mortgage. Buydowns can be permanent or temporary, like for your loan's first one to three years. Even a few years of lower rate relief can make today's home prices more affordable.

How soon will mortgage interest rates go down?

Experts aren't looking for much lower mortgage rates in the coming year or so. As noted above, a survey of mortgage lender executives by HousingWire on Oct. 1 found 70% expected mortgage rates to be near 7.5% or higher in 2027.

Compared to historical mortgage rates , 7% isn't considered high. While it might be high compared to pandemic-era rates that were sub-3%, it's on par with mortgage rates in the 1990s and considerably lower than the double-digit rates seen in the late 1970s and early 1980s.

Is it impossible to get a 3% interest rate on a mortgage?

It's not impossible to get a 3% interest rate, but doing so requires the perfect set of circumstances. You'd need to find a homeowner with an assumable mortgage — one that can be passed to a new owner at the same interest rate as the original loan. Assumable mortgages are generally government-backed loans from agencies like the VA, FHA, or USDA.

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