Black unemployment just rose at its fastest pace since Covid

Cherry-picking one data point from a monthly economic report is neither fair nor necessarily telling. But one statistic stood out in September’s mostly “meh” jobs report like a sore thumb. The unemployment rate for Black Americans rose from 6% to 7%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. It was the fastest one-month increase in Black unemployment since March-April 2020. Outside of the pandemic, it was the highest gain for Black unemployment since 2012. The rise was even more stark for Black women, whose jobless rate increased to 7.3% in September from 5.9% in August. It’s an unsettling development, particularly when the unemployment rate for all other races the government tracks — Asian, Hispanic and White Americans — fell between August and September. In other words, the overall increase in the unemployment rate to 4.2% from 4.1% was entirely attributable to the growth in joblessness of Black Americans. A rise in the Black unemployment rate can sometimes serve as a canary in a coal mine when problems are budding in the labor market. Jobs held by a larger percentage of Black workers than other races, including service-related roles and administrative support positions, tend to be the jobs employers cut first. The Trump administration, which rarely acknowledges potential economic weak spots, called the sharp rise in Black unemployment worrying. “It is definitely a cause for concern,” said Kevin Hassett, White House Director of the National Economic Council, in response to a question from CNN’s Alayna Treene. “We’re going to watch closely; we’re going to study it closely.” Statistical anomalies One month does not a trend make, and there is some reason to doubt the data. Hassett suggested some statistical noise could be a contributing factor to the big spike, and several economists supported that notion. The Black unemployment rate is an extraordinarily volatile data point, extrapolated from a relatively small sample of data. That’s why economists typically don’t draw meaningful conclusions about Black unemployment from one month to the next, focusing instead on several months of data to draw trend lines. And those trends have been quite positive for Black jobs: The unemployment rate had been trending steadily downward from 8.2% in November 2025 to 6% in August 2026. The Black unemployment rate isn’t unique in its data volatility. The entire jobs report, with its reduced survey response rate — and staff to collect and make sense of the data — has been choppy for quite some time. “Honestly, it’s too early to tell if this is a canary in the coal mine, especially given how volatile jobs numbers have been in recent months,” said Heather Long, chief economist for Navy Federal Credit Union. “We need to see another month or two of data before calling this a trend.” A big decline in education jobs in September could have played a significant factor in the unemployment rate spike, particularly for Black women, Long noted. That decline in teachers may have been attributed to a late Labor Day this year and some seasonal adjustments that didn’t quite catch the rebound in teaching jobs after summer ended. Another potential factor: a significant rebound in the labor force participation rate, after nearly half a million more people were looking for work last month than in August, noted Kory Kantenga, chief economist for LinkedIn. The labor force participation rate and the employment-to-population ratio increased for Black workers. That could be a sign of a stronger labor market, not a weaker one. The problem for Black workers: Historically, it takes longer for Black Americans to find jobs than people of other races who are seeking work. And few sectors are hiring in this economy, reducing opportunities for folks who aren’t in healthcare or building data centers. Worth watching Nevertheless, as Hassett said, the Black unemployment rate bears watching over the course of the next several months. The sharp upswing is an indication of the fragility of the “low-hire, low-fire” labor market, noted Sung Won Sohn, a professor of finance and economics at Loyola Marymount University and chief economist of SS Economics. “Cracks are showing at the edges,” he said, noting that the unemployment rate rising for Black workers is an “early warning sign.” And the recent AI-fueled changes in the labor force have been particularly unkind to women. Some economists have called 2026 a “momcession,” as 451,000 fewer women are participating in the labor force than at the end of last year — a trend that Jasmine Tucker, vice president of research at National Women’s Law Center, called “alarming.” “We remain concerned about policies pushing women, particularly Black women, out of the workforce,” she said.