October inflation data is expected to be cooler, helped by steadying energy prices

October inflation data coming on Tuesday is expected to show that inflation cooled somewhat from September's elevated levels but remains sticky.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect the Consumer Price Index to rise 0.3% in October compared to a month earlier, a far slower pace than September's 0.6% gain. Core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, is seen rising 0.2%, down from 0.3% a month earlier.

October's report is unlikely to include annual inflation figures because the Bureau of Labor Statistics was unable to publish full October 2025 data due to the government shutdown last year. But some economists estimate that inflation accelerated slightly on a year-over-year basis.

Rising energy prices weighed heavily on September's report , but October's price increases look less dramatic.

"We expect more subdued CPI in October after two straight disappointing 0.3% gains in the core rate," Dave Sloan, senior economist for North America at Continuum Economics, wrote in a note. "Gasoline prices have seen only a marginal rise on the month, and we expect overall CPI to also rise by 0.2%."

Inflation on many goods likely eased last month as tariff pressures faded, though goods inflation has been running hot in recent months due to intense artificial intelligence demand and rising vehicle prices, Bank of America economist Stephen Juneau wrote in a note. Services inflation is likely sticky due to factors like rising airfare prices, he added.

"Although we expect monthly core CPI to moderate, we see the risks as skewed to the upside," the note said. "The two biggest sources of uncertainty are used cars and health insurance."

Tuesday's inflation data is the Federal Reserve's final look at the CPI before it meets Dec. 8-9, although it will get another look at inflation data via its preferred measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures index, later this month.

With the labor market holding up , and even showing signs of accelerating, traders currently see an 83% chance that the central bank raises benchmark interest rates by 25 basis points. Another sticky inflation report is likely to cement those odds.

Claire Boston is a senior reporter for Yahoo Finance covering housing, mortgages, and home insurance.