Why Apple investors probably don't need to worry about a $2,000 iPhone price tag

With gas prices back on the rise, there is some chatter on the Street about whether people will be willing to spend a rumored $2,000 on a new Apple ( AAPL ) iPhone that folds like an old-school Motorola Razr from the early 2000s.

The data shows, however, that consumers continue to shop for ever more expensive iPhones, no matter if filling up the tank is costlier or economic uncertainty is the theme of the day.

JPMorgan analyst Samik Chatterjee wrote in a new note that there is a limited relationship between price and volume on the iPhone over a multiyear period. iPhone units increased about 10% between fiscal year 2015 and fiscal year 2026 despite a roughly 50% increase in average selling prices and a smartphone market that peaked around 2016-17.

The mix — what consumers are buying from Apple's iPhone lineup — has also shifted toward premium devices, with the Pro and Pro Max increasing from about 37% of shipments in 2020 to roughly 65% in 2025 .

"Most importantly, with the upcoming launch, we expect the company to highlight to investors the increase in affordability with a broader and more compelling leasing program in partnership with Klarna," Chatterjee said.

Today is Apple's "Surprise and Shine" keynote at the Steve Jobs Theater. It will mark a historic turning point for the tech giant as newly appointed CEO John Ternus takes the stage for his first product launch since succeeding Tim Cook this month.

Apple's first foldable iPhone (speculated to be called the iPhone Ultra) is expected to sport a lofty $2,000-plus starting price, according to Citi analysts.

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Citi estimated that Apple will sell about 5 million units of the new device in the second half of this year and another 2.3 million units in the first quarter of 2027.

In addition to the first foldable iPhone, Apple is expected to unveil a full iPhone 18 Pro lineup, new Apple Watches, and refreshed AI-driven software features.

The hoopla around new iPhones has often meant good things for Apple's stock, as investors price in a period of stronger-than-normal demand as consumers upgrade.

Shares of the tech giant have often exhibited a modest sell-the-news reaction immediately following launch events before recovering in the subsequent 30-60 days, according to fresh analysis from Bank of America analyst Wamsi Mohan.

Apple's stock has gained in the 60 days following an iPhone reveal day 17 times, dating back to the 2007 smartphone launch, Mohan's research found.

The biggest gain was 20%, recorded 60 days after the iPhone 11 reveal in 2019.