Divide between energy trackers and the White House deepens over how much oil is getting through the Strait of Hormuz

This Monday in the Strait of Hormuz was either a great or terrible day for the global economy, depending on whom you ask.

Ship-tracking service Kpler reported that "traffic declined sharply," with just five ships crossing on Monday, the same day that the US and Iran exchanged fire for the first time in a month . The data platform documented a mix of official ships as well as shadow vessels using concealment tactics.

Yet the picture from the Trump administration couldn't have been more different, with Energy Secretary Chris Wright saying in a CNBC interview that over 17 million barrels of oil passed through the waterway on Monday. Wright called it a record since the beginning of the conflict.

Wright's figures are rooted in claims from the Trump administration that dozens of ships are being assisted by the US Navy each night, undetected by commercial shipping trackers. Kpler and others use satellite imagery and other tools to gauge traffic in the waterway that is about 21 miles wide at its narrowest point.

The conflicting data has been evident throughout the summer , growing as a political flash point. Independent statistics have also further irked the White House by undercutting Trump's claims of US control over the waterway.

Meanwhile, tensions between the US and Iran resumed with renewed attacks pushing crude oil prices above $95 a barrel .

President Trump weighed in on Wednesday on Truth Social, again claiming that the US is in control and positing, "Should we change the name Hormuz Strait to TRUMP STRAIT???"

The bluster follows weeks in which Trump and his team have declined to back up their claims, leading to widespread skepticism about the White House's optimistic claims and uncertainty about where the truth lies.

"Might as well just rename it Schrödinger's Strait…" Mason Hamilton, a vice president of economics and research at the American Petroleum Institute, posted on X in reference to a famous thought experiment by Erwin Schrödinger about a (possibly) ill-fated cat.

Multiple sources show single-digit ship crossings

Trump often claims crossings through the strait are even higher than his team puts forth. "We've been averaging 30 ships a night [and] a lot of oil is coming out," he told reporters on Monday.

But weeks of data from a variety of sources suggest far less activity.

The IMF and Oxford University have documented fewer than five oil tanker crossings per day and overall crossing numbers in the single digits for weeks — far below the pre-conflict level of roughly 120 vessels (including dozens of tankers) per day.