Nike Is In Free Fall: This Wall Street Ratings Agency Says It’s Doubling Soon

Needham targets $75 for NKE, implying 95% upside, but strip out a one-time tariff recovery and Q1 EPS shrinks to just $0.20.

LULU has cratered 52% YTD while ONON is off 40%, yet analysts see roughly 60% upside in On Holding with strong Buy-skewed ratings.

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Nike ( NYSE:NKE ) trades at $38.40, well below Wall Street's average analyst price target of $50.46, a gap that implies roughly 31% upside.

Nike is the world's largest athletic footwear and apparel brand, and its "Win Now" turnaround under CEO Elliott Hill has become one of the most closely watched consumer stories on Wall Street. At least one prominent shop thinks that consensus target is far too conservative.

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Nike shares are down 38.12% year to date and 47.35% over the past twelve months, against an S&P 500 up 12.94% and 18.65% across the same windows. Forbes recently flagged Nike's removal from the S&P 100 as a possible capitulation signal.

The damage is fundamental. Fiscal Q1 2027 revenue slipped 1.1% year over year to $10.97 billion. Greater China fell 12% reported and 17% on a currency-neutral basis. Converse collapsed 32%. Nike Direct shrank 7%, with digital down double digits. The headline EPS beat of $0.72 versus $0.13 consensus looked flattering only because a one-time $986 million IEEPA tariff recovery added $0.52 per share. Strip that out and EPS was $0.20.

Needham's Tom Nikic carries a Buy rating and a $75 price target, a level that implies roughly 95% upside from here. His thesis rests on three pillars: wholesale channel realignment, franchise cleansing, and a strategic re-rating tied to Elliott Hill's operational pivot.

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Wholesale is already showing early proof. Nike's retail-sales comparison at Foot Locker turned positive for the first time in four years in Q4 fiscal 2026, and North America wholesale grew 10%. Needham sees renewed shelf space at Dick's Sporting Goods, Foot Locker, and specialty running stores as the primary volume engine, reversing years of over-indexing on direct-to-consumer.