Grain Traders Are Closely Eyeballing Black Sea Region Grain Shipping as Wheat, Corn Prices Fall

December soft red winter (SRW) wheat (ZWZ26) futures on Friday fell 20 1/4 cents to $7.34 and for the week were down 50 cents. December hard red winter (HRW) wheat (KEU27) futures lost 13 1/4 cents to $8.02 1/4 and for the week were down 42 cents. The winter wheat futures markets bulls did not want to go home for the three-day holiday weekend overly long wheat futures, especially as U.S. envoys were headed for Russia and Ukraine over the weekend to talk peace. Thus, they took some profits and evened positions. Russian President Vladimir Putin late last week said there may be a chance for peace.

Weekend news out of Russia and Ukraine saw uninspiring developments, however. Bloomberg reported Putin remains committed to continuing his war against Ukraine after his latest meeting with U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. "Putin is determined to seize control of all of Ukraine's eastern Donetsk region and believes Russia's army can achieve this goal in the next six months. Ukraine has repeatedly rejected Putin's demand to hand over a fortress belt of cities in the eastern Donetsk region as part of any deal to end the war," said the report.

Ukraine's Rebound and Russia's Rerouting Leave Exports Costly and Uncertain

That's the headline of a special weekend report from the respected grain market watcher and ag policy analyst Jim Wiesemeyer from the "Wiesemeyer's Perspectives" podcast. "Ukraine is moving more grain through alternative export routes, but sharply higher freight costs are limiting the benefit. Meanwhile, Russia's own port disruptions are restricting wheat shipments and forcing exporters toward Baltic outlets. Together, the developments point to a partial recovery in trade that remains expensive, vulnerable to delays and well short of normal capacity."

Reuters on Monday reported Ukraine's weekly wheat, corn and barley exports rose 80% to 433,700 metric tons during Aug. 27-Sept. 2. That is a substantial improvement, although shipments remain about 43% below the roughly 760,000 tons moving weekly in early July, based on the comparison in the supplied report. Wiesemeyer's report said the recovery carries a steep transportation bill. The ASAP Agri update cited freight rates from Ukrainian Danube ports rising approximately $10 per ton to Marmara and eastern Greece and $20-$25 to Italy and Spain in one week. Barge rates increased by another 5 Euros per ton. Scarce vessels and longer waiting times are absorbing more of exporters' selling prices.