Tesla, Waymo, and Zoox are driving a nightmarish year for these 2 stocks

Uber ( UBER ) just canned 10% of its workforce, and its stock is down 13%. Lyft's ( LYFT ) market cap is a paltry $5.8 billion, and shares are off by 20%.

These bearish stats reflect the reality that established ride-hailing giants face: Driverless cars from well-capitalized players are coming for their businesses, and Uber and Lyft are way behind on the rollout of autonomous vehicles.

"Leading mobility companies, Uber and Lyft, have underperformed the market in 2026 as their US Autonomous Vehicle (AV) partnerships are in the development phase, while Waymo, Tesla and Zoox have started deploying vehicles," Bank of America analyst Justin Post wrote in a new note. "Both Uber & Lyft expect that their AV ramps will begin to scale in 2028, which gives new AV platforms 18-24 months to build volumes without incumbent AV competition."

Post added, "We expect Waymo, Tesla and Zoox to rapidly scale their production and AV fleets over the next three years, and our base case suggests $6 billion in competitive bookings by 2028, or 5% of the market."

The driverless fleet is starting to expand to real numbers.

Post estimated that Google-backed ( GOOG , GOOGL ) Waymo has around 4,000 vehicles currently operating in the US.

Tesla ( TSLA ) has 420 driverless vehicles in operation (based on Texas registration data).

The competitive AV fleet may scale from around 4,500 vehicles today and approximately $570 million in bookings in 2026 to approximately 118,000 vehicles and $15.3 billion in bookings in 2029, Post wrote.

For Amazon ( AMZN ) subsidiary Zoox, the company reportedly had 50 AVs in operation in September 2025, with the majority operating in Las Vegas.

Post thinks the Zoox fleet will scale to 6,000 AVs by 2029, assuming Zoox expands to 20 cities with around 300 vehicles per city, a projection supported by the company's June disclosure that it has the capacity to produce 100 vehicles per week.

Theoretically, these would have been bookings for Uber and Lyft if driverless cars didn't exist or each were more advanced in their AV development.

Lyft CEO David Risher is currently pushing out a fleet of robotaxis in select markets like Nashville and building an 80,000-square-foot warehouse to service and manage the fleet.

"Waymo, of course, is the leader," Risher said in a July interview on the Power Players with Brian Sozzi podcast. "They are our partner in Nashville. So, in Nashville, starting over the coming weeks and then months, you'll be able to not only order a Waymo on Lyft, but even when you order it on Waymo's own app … we will be doing the fleet management."