Gas prices likely to drop below $4 a gallon in the next week if oil prices keep declining, analyst says

Gasoline prices are on track to fall below the $ 4-per-gallon threshold if the Middle East conflict doesn't escalate further and oil prices continue to decline, according to one industry analyst.

On Monday, the national average for gasoline was $4.16 per gallon, about $0.14 lower than a week ago and roughly $0.23 lower than a month ago, according to AAA data.

Over the weekend, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio signaled that President Trump favors negotiations over further attacks on Iran. The country's supreme leader also indicated that Tehran is open to talks, sending oil prices down more than 6%. Brent crude ( BZ=F ) fell to near $105 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate crude ( CL=F ) fell to around $97.

"The national average could fall under $4 a gallon in the next week barring a course change," Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum research at GasBuddy, wrote on X on Monday.

The analyst also noted more refining capacity could creep in the months ahead, adding a few thousand barrels per day, or even 10,000 barrels per day.

The move lower marks a reversal of the recent reacceleration in fuel costs as Middle East tensions escalated and inclement weather and constrained refining capacity put upward pressure on prices.

President Trump has said he will not attack Iran before the midterms and has suggested that fuel prices will decline afterward.

Last month, The New York Times reported that the US and Israel had reportedly drawn up plans for renewed attacks on Iran following the Nov. 3 elections. Around that time, the US also ordered nonessential embassy personnel to depart Saudi Arabia following a series of attacks targeting the country's airports and oil fields.

On Sunday night, Goldman Sachs analysts raised their Brent crude forecast to $105 per barrel for December, up from $90 previously. The analysts expect Brent to average $88 per barrel next year, up from an earlier forecast of $80 per barrel.