Economy leading the way ahead of Election Day

Where does the economy stand before Election Day?

Troubling data and Americans’ sour views of the economy give Democrats an opening on Tuesday, as they attempt to retake control of Congress.

While President Trump and Republicans campaigned in 2024 on lowering prices, annual inflation has risen this year due to higher energy costs amid the Iran war.

The economic effects from the war, particularly elevated oil prices, have spilled over to the rest of the economy. Gas costs greater than $4 per gallon , the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield is trading at nearly 5 percent and the average 30-year mortgage rate is higher than 7 percent.

That has translated to Americans having a worsening outlook of the economy. Eight of 10 respondents to a recent CNBC survey rated the economy as fair or poor , the highest amount since December 2023.

“Consumers are still pretty negative on the economy, and it really comes down to affordability,” Erin McLaughlin , a senior economist at the Conference Board, told The Hill.

McLaughlin’s organization’s measure of consumer sentiment, the Consumer Confidence Index, rose from 84.2 in September to 91.7 in October . But the metric has still been below 100 for most of the last two years, as inflation is still above 2 percent.

To combat inflation, Federal Reserve officials raised interest rates in September, pushing borrowing costs up when Americans were already feeling the pinch from higher prices. The Fed held rates steady last week and will meet again in early December.

Republicans are fighting these economic headwinds , and recent political history, on Tuesday. Democrats need to flip a net of three seats to win the House and four seats to take the Senate.

Trump has maintained confidence, predicting Republicans will hold on to Congress for his final two years in office.

The president has also touted a slew of actions he has taken on the economy, from an attempt to lower government-backed mortgage payments to allowing truckers to fill up their tanks with red-dyed diesel .

Yet while fuel prices have declined over the last month, they remain above pre-Iran war levels . That makes the trip from the pump to the polls a pricey one, with the GOP facing Americans’ concerns head-on at the ballot box.

“Seeing an end to some of the pressure that they’ve seen as a result of higher gas prices, tariffs, and now interest rates are also playing into that affordability conversation ,” McLaughlin said, of what Americans are experiencing financially.

Welcome to The Hill’s Business & Economy newsletter , I’m Max Rego — covering the intersection of Wall Street and Pennsylvania Avenue.

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Key business and economic news with implications this week and beyond:

A group of Democratic lawmakers on Monday urged Frank Bisignano, the CEO of the IRS, to answer for why the agency has delayed publication of data that shows how much money owed by taxpayers wasn’t paid on time.

U.S. manufacturing activity expanded slightly in October, marking 10 straight months of growth leading into the midterms.

Actor Bill Murray walked on to a CNBC set Monday and interrupted an interview with President Trump’s top economic adviser, Kevin Hassett.

President Trump said Sunday his administration and Canadian officials are close to reaching a deal to end their months-long trade dispute.

Upcoming news themes and events we’re watching:

Tomorrow is Election Day , with polls open in all 50 states and the District of Columbia.

Branch out with more stories from the day:

Iowa’s cancer crisis could reshape the state’s biggest midterm races

Rising cancer rates and their potential link to farm pollution are causing a crisis in Iowa, throwing uncertainty into the midterm elections in a state that has shifted ruby-red in recent years.

Business and economic news we’ve flagged from other outlets:

Stock market after midterm elections: What S&P 500 history shows ( CNBC )

Here’s where Trump’s housing agenda stands before midterms ( CNN )

The midterm races Wall Street and other financial firms are watching ( Reuters )

Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) is forecasting Senate races in Texas, Alaska and Maine will flip toward Democrats on Tuesday, enough to put the party in a prime position of winning back the upper chamber. Read more

When the history of the 2026 midterm elections is written, the most remembered political advertisement will be Ohio gubernatorial candidate Vivek Ramaswamy’s (R) commercial starring the mother of his opponent, Dr. Amy Acton (D). Read more