Yankees’ season riding on one key piece — and it’s missing | Klapisch

NEW YORK — It was October 2004, and if you're any kind of Yankees historian, you can probably guess where this analogy is headed.

It was Game 7 of the AL Championship Series when the Red Sox were about to put the finishing touches on a historic comeback against the Yankees. The Yankees had led the series 3-0, but now it was tied 3-3. Even though the Yankees had blown a three-game advantage, at least the deciding game was on their home turf.

The old Yankee Stadium was an uncomfortable place for visiting teams. The crowds were tougher back then, and the upper deck was massive, hanging low enough to intimidate outfielders.

The Red Sox had all the momentum. But the Yankees had the confidence that if all else failed, Yankee Stadium, the hard-edged fans and the remnants of the 1996-2000 dynasty would act as a last line of defense.

That narrative vanished in the space of one at-bat.

Johnny Damon led off the game with a sharp ground ball to third. The ball was hit one step to Alex Rodriguez's left — and he froze. He was tight. All the Yankees were.

Damon's base hit started a deluge that resulted in a 6-0 lead in the first two innings. The comeback was complete. So was the Yankees' humiliation.

Rodriguez wasn't solely responsible for the Yankees' 10-2 Game 7 loss, but the play confirmed my hunch they'd been traumatized by Boston's refusal to concede. The Yankees were beaten before they'd even stepped on the field.

I recalled that moment on Monday night at Tropicana Field, when I watched a similar scenario unfold in the best-of-five American League Division Series against the Rays: The Yankees were in a must-win situation — down 1-0 in the series — against an opponent with growing confidence. And then it happened.

Yandy Diaz led off the bottom of the first with a ground ball to the left of third baseman Ryan McMahon. It should've been an easy out, but McMahon allowed the ball to glance off his glove.

The error mushroomed into a catastrophic first inning for the Yankees, who made three errors. Even though Tampa Bay scored just one run, it was obvious which team had the upper hand.

Again, McMahon wasn't to blame for the eventual 5-2 loss. But it was an early indicator of the Yankees' lack of preparation. Starting pitcher Cam Schlittler bluntly said, "We didn't show up."

The question is whether the Yankees are capable of complete amnesia. They'll need it. Division Series history alone is daunting. Nearly 90% of teams that were down 0-2 in this best-of-five situation have gone on to lose.

For Wednesday's ALDS Game 3 between the Yankees and the Rays, the over/under is currently set at 7.5 total runs on Polymarket . Also, view our guide to the best sportsbook promos to shop for the odds across platforms.

Confidence matters as much as the numbers. The Rays have it — they are not afraid of the Yankees. The Yankees pretend to be unbothered, but I didn't sense much confidence in the post-game clubhouse.

That's because the Yankees had reason to expect dominance from Schlittler, similar to his masterpiece against Boston in the Wild Card Series.

The Red Sox were ready, or so they thought. They'd spent hours standing in against the hi-tech Trajekt machine. Boston's hitters memorized every trait of Schlittler's fastball, and he still shut them out over 6 1/3 innings in Game 1, striking out 10.

Schlittler encountered a much different opponent one week later. Unlike the Red Sox, the Rays don't strike out very often. They wear down even the hardest throwers, like Schlittler, by one foul ball after another.

The biggest shock to the Yankees was that Tampa Bay neutralized Schlittler's strikeout ability. He generated only two whiffs in 4 1/3 innings, leaving the Yankees in search of someone (anyone) who can help them regain their swagger.

Max Fried could be that guy, although not in the way Schlittler does. The left-hander prefers soft contact over swings and misses. Fried will need defensive support, and manager Aaron Boone must find new pieces around him

McMahon, for one, has to be replaced by Jose Caballero. That also goes for Jazz Chisholm; he needs to sit. Anthony Volpe is the most logical Plan B at second base.

But the Yankees will still need more than a new-look lineup to claw their way back into the series. They need to believe they can actually hang with the Rays. Their belief in their own superiority no longer sounds credible — not after a four-error fiasco and not after scoring two runs in 18 innings in the series.

Aaron Judge's absence has also destabilized the Yankees in ways that go beyond the box score. He's the Yankees' true leader. It doesn't matter if Judge is hitting home runs or mired in a slump. He's capable of lifting up the Yankees – but only when he's in the lineup. Seeing No. 99 in a hoodie in the dugout has, however subliminally, contributed to the Yankees' feeling of being underdogs.

It doesn't help, either, that Boone is not a war-time manager. He does his best work when the Yankees are cruising. Boone has the ability to keep all 26 players pulling in the same direction. He's an affirmer. He's all about positive energy.

What Boone lacks is the extra layer in his personality that demands more. He doesn't push the Yankees because he's not wired for that tension.

Can all this be fixed in one night? Pay attention to the first inning. It could be the key.

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