‘It’s going to drop’: Tom Lee issues bold US inflation call — it could make savvy investors rich. Ignore the doomers?

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If you've been worried sick about higher prices, one of Wall Street's most-watched bulls has a message for you: relief may be on the way.

"I think the probabilities are really high. It's going to drop," Tom Lee, co-founder of Fundstrat Global Advisors, said of inflation in a Sept. 25 interview.

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Lee was discussing inflation, bond yields and his outlook for the stock market on CNBC's (1) Closing Bell. He considers the next six months to be the most important for inflation.

If prices do come down, "this is not because of the Fed hikes," he said. "It's because of the policy that's already in place."

According to Lee, several things that pushed prices higher are starting to fade. These include tariffs, the cost of flash memory and stock market portfolio fees.

Lee pointed out that one reason inflation numbers could start to look better is that the government is changing the way it calculates inflation. This new methodology could knock the number down — from 3.4% to 3%.

So, with these factors in play, how does inflation come back?

Lee explained that a lot of things would have to go wrong. Home prices would have to climb higher, but he anticipates that higher rates will contain them. Memory prices would also have to surge again, and oil prices would have to make a move toward $150 a barrel.

"So I think the odds favor a much lower inflation year over year in six months," he said.

This is truly a bold call, especially considering the Federal Reserve's current stance and September interest rate hike — the first since 2023.

"The plain fact is that inflation is too high and has been for too long," Fed Chair Kevin Warsh (2) said during a press conference that followed the Sept. 16 Federal Open Market Committee meeting. "This summer's inflation readings do not tell me that underlying trends have meaningfully improved."

Scott Wapner, host of CNBC's Closing Bell , also pushed back in the interview with Lee, noting that changing how a number is calculated doesn't really change what people pay at the store.