Do Iran’s latest threats to Europe have teeth?

Do Iran’s latest threats to Europe have teeth?

Iran’s recent saber-rattling against Bulgaria has renewed questions over how much it’s willing to directly attack Europe in an effort to deter U.S. allies from aiding war efforts.

Bulgaria, among Iran’s biggest trading partners in Eastern Europe, is among the European countries Iran considered striking if President Trump escalated the war, The Financial Times reported last week. That’s due to both its south-eastern location on the continent and two U.S. Air Force KC-135 refueling planes using one of its bases to support Operation Epic Fury.

After Bulgarian officials announced the departure of those planes over the weekend, Iran on Monday issued its latest warning to NATO members that allow their territory to be a jumping off point for American or Israeli military action against the regime, saying it “ has the right to target the point of origin and source of any act of aggression against” it.

Iran has made similar threats to the United Kingdom , with a drone striking a British airbase in Cyprus in March. That same month, Iran fired two ballistic missiles at the remote U.K.-U.S. base in the Indian Ocean known as Diego Garcia. And Turkey in March said NATO’s air defenses had intercepted several ballistic missiles launched from Iran.

While Iran clearly wants to maintain the perception that it’s willing and capable of striking Europe, analysts aren’t convinced it really wants to invite NATO more fully into the fight.

“I don’t think the juice is worth the squeeze in terms of antagonizing NATO. . . . I don’t think that attacking European targets gets them anything extra than attacking [Gulf] targets doesn’t get them,” said Alan Eyre, a former head of the Iran office at the U.S. Consulate in Dubai, now with the Middle East Institute.

David Cattler, a senior fellow with the Center for European Policy Analysis, likewise said that an Iranian strike on a NATO ally would be a major escalation but a bad strategic trade for Tehran , as “that would probably transform Europeans who largely have sought distance from the Iran war into active participants against” the regime.

He said the more immediate issue is Iranian coercion.

“The reality is Tehran doesn’t need to fire a missile at Bulgaria to achieve an effect . Threatening the countries that provide the bases, logistic support, access to the United States is itself an attempt to raise the price of supporting Washington in an attempt to weaken allied cohesion,” Cattle told The Hill.

Insiders can read the full report at thehill.com .

Welcome to The Hill’s Defense & National Security newsletter, I’m Ellen Mitchell — your guide to the latest developments at the Pentagon, on Capitol Hill and beyond.

Did someone forward you this newsletter? Subscribe here.

How policy will affect defense and national security now and in the future:

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on Wednesday upgraded the valor awards of three Marines who guarded the Abbey Gate at the Hamid Karzai International Airport when a bomb went off as U.S. service members were evacuating from Afghanistan five years ago. The Marines — Gunnery Sgt. Jonathan Eby, Cpl. Michael Gretzon, Lance Cpl. Jordan Houston —were aiding with security on Aug. 26, 2021, the day a suicide bomber struck the gate and killed 13 …

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is considering his chief spokesperson, Sean Parnell, to succeed Army Secretary Dan Driscoll, who is eyeing an exit from the Pentagon in the coming months, two sources familiar with the matter told The Hill. The Hill previously reported that Parnell, who is also one of Hegseth’s senior advisers, has privately expressed his interest in the role. In response to questions to Parnell, a …

A Nicaraguan immigrant who was detained by Border Patrol agents while his son spent more than nine months deployed in the Middle East has been released from custody, his family announced Tuesday. Luis Manuel Aviles, who has lived in the U.S. for nearly two decades, was released and reunited with his family following his arrest in Florida, which occurred while his son, U.S. Navy sailor Joshua Aviles, was serving aboard the USS …

President Trump’s administration sent a nuclear cooperation agreement with Saudi Arabia that would allow the kingdom to enrich uranium to Congress this week, kick-starting a congressional review process required under the Atomic Energy Act. However, President Trump’s retroactive condition for the deal — that it will only move forward if Saudi Arabia joins the Abraham Accords — has not changed, an administration official …

Upcoming things we’re watching on our beat:

Congress is out for August recess. The House will return on the 31st and the Senate on Sept. 14.

Branch out with a different read from The Hill:

US halts immigrant visa applications for global ‘in-depth’ training course

The Trump administration has paused immigrant visa appointments worldwide to carry out “in-depth training” for consular officers to screen out foreign applicants at risk of taking advantage of U.S. public assistance. The guidance from the State Department comes after a federal judge last week …

Hegseth’s purge of top generals leaves the Army rudderless , The New York Times reports

Before Hegseth fired him, top general was advised to drop Kid Rock probe , The Washington Post reports

The Iran war is already on November ballots , Politico reports

Gas station and travel center chain Buc-ee’s said it will seek out “conservative, business friendly” states for new locations after receiving … Read more

A federal judge in Boston on Wednesday lifted a nationwide block on mail-in voting restrictions, temporarily clearing the way for the Trump administration … Read more

Op-eds related to defense & national security submitted to The Hill: