NOAA releases fall weather predictions for all 50 states as El Niño grows stronger

(NEXSTAR) – Fall is just around the corner, but summer weather may be sticking around a little while longer. A seasonal outlook released by national forecasters on Thursday shows most of the country is expected to see warmer-than-average weather over the next three months.

The long-range forecast, produced by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, shows all but a few states leaning toward hotter-than-normal temperatures between September and November. The Pacific Northwest is most likely to see above-average weather, according to the map.

The future is murkier for a handful of states shown in white on the map below. Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Missouri, Ohio, Tennessee and West Virginia have about equal chances of seeing a warm fall, a cool fall and an average fall.

When it comes to precipitation, even more states are seeing a toss-up situation.

The Southwest and Southeast are more likely to see above-average rain, while the Northeast and Pacific Northwest are more likely to be dry.

The forecast isn’t very clear for everyone else. Most states have equal chances of below-average, above-average or average precipitation between now and November.

Hawaii, which isn’t shown on the maps above, has a different outlook. Oahu, Maui, Kauai and the Big Island are most likely to see above-normal temperatures this fall, before shifting to a cooler winter season in early 2027. Below-normal precipitation is increasingly likely for all of Hawaii starting in October, the Climate Prediction Center said.

Last Thursday , national forecasters said the odds that the 2026-2027 El Niño will reach the highest strength level — often called a “super” El Niño — are now higher than 90%.

The climate phenomenon has slowly gained steam since it officially started earlier this summer, and is expected to reach maximum strength in late fall or early winter. That’s when it would have the strongest chokehold on our weather patterns.

Typically, El Niño produces warmer, dry weather up north and in the Ohio Valley. Meanwhile, the southern half of the country usually gets a wetter winter, with more rain and snow. The exact dividing line moves year to year, depending on the position of the jet stream.

Some early signs of those patterns can be seen in the fall weather forecasts released Thursday, especially in the warm, dry Pacific Northwest, and the wetter southern states.

Other impacts of El Niño on fall weather include suppressing hurricane activity in the Atlantic and contributing to more high-tide flooding on the West Coast.