Fed keeps the door open for more rate hikes as Schmid warns there's 'work to do'

Kansas City Federal Reserve president Jeff Schmid said Friday that he supported the central bank's decision to raise interest rates this week and suggested that more rate hikes could be warranted, a view that was echoed by the rest of the central bank and Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh.

"The Fed has work to do on inflation, and this week's action was a step in that direction," Schmid said in a speech in Vail, Colo.

The Federal Open Market Committee voted on Wednesday in a unanimous decision to raise its benchmark interest rate to the range of 3.75% to 4% from 3.5% to 3.75%, the first rate hike since July 2023

Schmid noted that inflation has run above the central bank's 2% target for over five years, and the most recent price readings suggest a pace trending above 3%. Inflation has jumped this year as oil and overall energy prices have leapt higher amid the conflict with Iran. Even when stripping out energy and food prices, so-called "core" inflation has also been sticky .

Schmid stressed that the Fed should take a broader view of inflation outside of oil and supply issues, such as tariffs.

"Higher oil prices have been an important driver of elevated inflation, but it is important to acknowledge that our inflation problem is not just about energy," he said.

Schmid's comments buttress what Warsh told reporters following the Fed meeting. Both kept the door open for further rate hikes.

Warsh said Wednesday that this summer's inflation readings do not indicate that underlying trends have meaningfully improved. He reiterated that he would be hard-pressed to describe broad financial conditions as restrictive, a view widely shared by the rest of the Fed.

"So we removed a dose of accommodation," Warsh said. "We must be confident that underlying inflation is moving to our objective, clearly and at sufficient speed. "

This week, the median of interest rate projections from 18 of the 19 Fed members, excluding Warsh, showed that officials expect to raise rates a second time this year before holding rates steady next year.

Of the 18 who submitted interest rate expectations, only two projected no further change in rates this year, 12 projected one more hike, and four projected two more hikes. For 2027, rate projections indicated that 14 members expected rates to remain at current levels or rise.

"For most of the year, Fed speakers have pointed to the pass-through from adverse supply shocks driving inflation higher," said JPMorgan chief economist Michael Feroli. "However, the constellation of… revisions suggest that the Committee may be seeing a growing risk of demand-led overheating, a risk that policy may need to lean into."