Lula bucks prediction markets with Brazilian presidential win

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva bucked prediction market odds with his unlikely win in the Brazilian presidential runoff election this weekend.

On Sunday, Lula was rated an underdog in the election, as his odds were at 20.2 percent on Kalshi and 20.5 percent on Polymarket at noon EDT.

His opponent, Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of Brazil’s former far-right leader Jair Bolsonaro, was the favorite leading up to the election. He was given an 81 percent chance on Kalshi and 79.8 percent on Polymarket.

Notably, certain prediction market platforms were blocked in Brazil in April , particularly Kalshi and Polymarket.

Flávio Bolsonaro held leads in prediction markets beginning earlier this month after he and Lula advanced to a runoff election when neither candidate garnered the majority vote needed for an outright win. The court had Bolsonaro with just more than 56 million votes to Lula’s 53.7 million, with 99.8 percent of the vote reported, according to The Associated Press .

Despite the difference in prediction market odds between the candidates, polling reported they were relatively even in support, according to Reuters . For example, an Atlas Intel/Bloomberg poll found 49.9 percent of respondents backed Bolsonaro, while Lula garnered 48.4 percent support, though the lead was within the poll’s margin of error of 1 percentage point.

At 6 p.m. EDT Sunday, the odds quickly shifted once Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court reported Lula had garnered 51.8 percent of valid votes, while Bolsonaro only received 48.2 percent support.

The results meant Lula persuaded 10.4 million more voters to support him for his fourth nonconsecutive term.

Since the election was called, Bolsonaro announced he was seeking an annulment for the results of the election following a chaotic extension of voting at the request of both candidates. But in a video on his social media channels Monday, he did not repeat that message and promised to organize opposition to Lula.

Prediction markets on Polymarket have already opened on whether Bolsonaro’s annulment will go through before the Dec. 18 deadline when the courts will certify the ballots.

Polymarket and Kalshi did not respond immediately to The Hill’s request for comment.