One issue, different bills: Energy costs shape key midterm races

( NewsNation ) – Higher energy costs have helped make affordability a top issue in the 2026 midterms , but voters aren’t all worried about the same bills.

Diesel prices are squeezing Midwest farmers , while homeowners in the Northeast face soaring heating oil costs . Others in data center hotspots like Texas and Ohio are worried about their electricity bills .

Democrats have tried to tie those issues to President Trump , pointing to the war in Iran and his embrace of AI . As of Wednesday, Decision Desk HQ gave Democrats an 80 percent chance of winning the House and a 58 percent chance of controlling the Senate .

Some Republicans have called for an end to the Iran war, while others have blamed high prices on Ukraine’s war with Russia and Democrats’ energy policies.

To win the Senate, Democrats will have to break through on Republican turf . Of the Cook Political Report’s seven toss-ups , five are in states Trump won by double digits in 2024.

Diesel prices are more than 70 percent higher than a year ago amid the wars in Iran and Ukraine, and farmers across America’s heartland are feeling the pain .

In Iowa, diesel averaged $6.14 a gallon on Wednesday, an increase of $2.50 from a year earlier, according to AAA . Kansas has seen a similar jump.

The surge comes at a particularly bad time for farmers, who rely on diesel to power tractors and combines during harvest season. It’s also become a political problem for Republicans, who are now facing unexpectedly close races in states Trump won handily in 2024.

Republican Ashley Hinson is running neck and neck with Democrat Josh Turek for Iowa’s open Senate seat, while Democrat Adam Hamilton has gained ground on Republican Sen. Roger Marshall in Kansas.

Trump has tried to shore up rural support, recently announcing an $8 billion “harvest fuel relief program” aimed at offsetting farmers’ diesel costs with one-time payments.

The Iowa Farmers Union called the move a “Band-Aid response” that “doesn’t fix the problem.” After years without endorsing a federal candidate, the organization is backing Democrats in all five of Iowa’s congressional races.

Other farm groups are supporting Republicans. The Iowa Corn Growers Association has endorsed Hinson, while the Kansas Farm Bureau’s political arm is backing Marshall.

Data center expansion fuels utility bill anxiety

Most Americans don’t want AI data centers in their communities, and concerns about higher utility bills are part of the reason why.

The issue has taken center stage in Texas, where Republican Gov. Greg Abbott is seeking a fourth term, and Democrats are hoping to flip a competitive Senate seat .

Texas is expected to overtake Virginia as the world’s largest data center market by 2030, according to JLL , but the boom has drawn pushback.

A new University of Houston poll found nearly 80 percent of Texas voters support limits on data center construction, while 76 percent expect the projects to raise electricity costs in communities where they’re built.

Abbott, who called the state the “epicenter of AI development” as recently as last November, has since tapped the brakes, ordering a pause on environmental permits for data centers while officials complete an audit.

Data centers have also become a flashpoint in Senate races in Ohio and Michigan, two contests that could decide which party controls the chamber.

In Michigan, Republican Mike Rogers supports a one-year pause on new data center construction while Democrat Abdul El-Sayed’s “ terms of engagement ” proposal calls for data centers to cover their own energy costs and protect local water resources.

In Ohio, Democrat Sherrod Brown has criticized Republican Sen. Jon Husted for promoting data centers during his time as lieutenant governor. As a senator, Husted introduced legislation aimed at keeping data centers’ energy costs off household bills.

New Englanders brace for higher heating bills

Winter is right around the corner, and keeping warm will be more expensive for the roughly 4.8 million U.S. households that rely on heating oil .

Heating oil ​prices have soared to $6.23 per gallon nationally, up from around $3.60 a year ago, according to the Energy Information Administration . Like diesel, heating oil has been hit by global supply disruptions linked to the U.S.-Iran and Russia-Ukraine wars.

Higher costs will hit especially hard in the Northeast, which is home to 82 percent of U.S. households that use heating oil as their primary heating fuel.

In Maine, where roughly half of households use heating oil to warm their homes, rising prices have become a major issue in the Senate race between Republican Sen. Susan Collins and Democrat Troy Jackson .

Jackson has blamed the increase on the Iran war and criticized Collins’ voting record on the conflict. Collins, who’s running for a sixth term, said earlier this month that she had urged the Trump administration to use “every tool available” to increase supply and bring down energy costs.

Last week, the Energy Department said it would make up to 315,000 barrels of heating oil available from the government’s Northeast Home Heating Oil Reserve in an effort to bring down prices.

Collins praised the decision , saying it will “make a real difference for Maine homeowners as they prepare for winter.”

William O’Neil, an analyst at S&P Global Energy, told The New York Times that “the volume is too small relative to consumption to significantly change supply.”