UK airbase plot expands fears of Iran’s military capabilities

The U.S. military’s abrupt withdrawal of all of its bombers from a British air base in response to a possible terrorist attack has expanded fears over Iran’s ability to strike targets outside the Middle East — and well outside its missile range.

The threat, reported to be a potential drone attack ordered by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, prompted Washington on Sunday to relocate the 12 Air Force B-1 bombers stationed at RAF Fairford in southern England back to home stations in the United States.

The incident, which comes amid the Trump administration’s now seven-month war against Iran, has renewed worries about the vulnerability of the West’s military bases and assets.

“It obviously was quite serious if the U.S. felt compelled to so abruptly move the bombers,” Mona Yacoubian, the director of the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said of the incident.

“Unfortunately, I do think this could be part of a longer-term trend in which we see Iran in various ways relying on these asymmetric drone, in particular, capabilities, taking lessons from other war zones,” she told The Hill.

One of those war zones is Ukraine, where Kyiv has massively expanded its counterattack capabilities through drones. In one coordinated attack dubbed “Operation Spiderweb,” Ukraine smuggled truckloads of drones into Russia to strike five military bases inside the country.

Even as the full details around the alleged U.K. plot remain unknown, the incident has highlighted how modern warfare can threaten areas far from the frontlines, forcing the U.S. to shift people, assets and equipment.

President Trump on Monday told reporters that the U.S. government moved the bombers “around a little bit, not very far” as the British airbase was under threat of attack by Iran.

“There was some threats . . . so why should we leave them there?” Trump said as he departed the White House, referring to the warplanes.

Vice President Vance the same day said the U.S. military moved the bombers “out of an abundance of caution trying to protect our guys,” accusing Tehran in general of plotting attacks against the U.S. and other countries.

“We do feel with some confidence that the Iranians are, you know they’re trying to do what the Iranian state has done for 49 years, which is engage in acts of terrorism against the United States and against a lot of other people as well,” Vance told reporters at Joint Base Andrews enroute to Alaska.

“We are being extremely cautious,” he added.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio, meanwhile, sought to downplay the move, describing it as “not unusual, adding that he “wouldn’t directly tie” the British terror plot to the bomber movements.

However, it would not be the first time the U.S. has been forced to move military assets in Europe over perceived Iranian threats.

In August, two Air Force KC-135 refueling planes were relocated from a Bulgarian air base after Tehran issued a warning to the Balkan nation over allowing their territory to be a jumping-off point for American military action against the regime. Iran said it “has the right to target the point of origin and source of any act of aggression against” it.

Tehran has said that “any base used for aggression against Iranian territory constitutes a legitimate target for our forces.”

Iran also has proven it can strike far outside its borders. An Iranian drone struck a British airbase in Cyprus in March, the same month it fired two ballistic missiles at the remote U.K.-U.S. base in the Indian Ocean known as Diego Garcia.

The regime also killed three U.S. service members with ballistic missile and drone attacks in Jordan in July.

In the latest incident pinned on Iran, British authorities said they had thwarted an alleged terrorist plot, initially arresting five men on explosives and terror charges near RAF Fairford on Sept. 27. The men, all five of whom are British nationals in their 20s, were released on bail a day later, but two additional men were later arrested on suspicion of preparing terrorist acts.

British Prime Minister Andy Burnham last week said his government believes that Iran “played a part” in the incident. Iran has denied the accusations.

More recently, U.S. and British officials told The New York Times that the two allies believe Iran plotted to strike aircraft and kill some of the several hundred American personnel stationed at RAF Fairford, which the U.S. has used to position B-52 and B-1 bombers as part of the Trump administration’s war against Iran .

Some of the officials told the outlet that the plot was thought to be loosely modeled after the Ukrainian drone attack launched from semi-trucks last year, which destroyed or damaged at least a dozen Russian aircraft.

Yacoubian said there is new knowledge being gained from different war zones “and we will see asymmetric powers like Iran seek to exploit that learning, exploit those lessons, and translate them in new ways to cause problems for the United States.”

She added that while Iran’s attacks outside the Gulf region are not new, the timing suggests the regime seeks to demonstrate it would rather escalate the conflict than capitulate to the U.S. and economic pressure to end the war, pointing to the recent rhetoric between Washington and Tehran.

Trump in September told the United Nations General Assembly he faces a “big decision” on whether to restart a bombing campaign against Iran or broker a peace deal, adding that he could “annihilate” the regime.

And last week, the president said ramped-up military strikes against Iran were “possible” after the November midterm elections.

Adding to speculations of renewed fighting is Washington’s recent movement of more service members to the Middle East, last week sending thousands more sailors and Marines aboard a third aircraft carrier strike group and an additional Marine expeditionary unit.

Tehran, meanwhile, on Monday warned that any new attack could trigger strikes against American interests “without any restrictions,” no matter if it comes before or after the midterms.

“This kind of growing pressure and rhetoric suggests that a new round of confrontation could be in the offing very soon,” Yacoubian said, adding that it’s certain to create more instances of the U.S. being forced to shift its people and weapons.

This “is going to create all kinds of knock-on challenges that, unfortunately, maybe we’re only starting to just see the beginning of that and what that looks like,” she said.