‘100% to 99% chance’ El Niño lasts 6 months: What does that mean for you?

(NEXSTAR) – El Niño is here , growing stronger by the day , and getting ready for a long stay. Climate models indicate the phenomenon is nearly certain to last not just through this fall and winter, but also into spring 2027.

In a briefing to the media this week, Columbia University climate scientist Azhar Ehsan presented a chart showing probability of El Niño lasting until spring was “100% to 99%.”

“I wrote near-certain but it’s 100%,” he said.

Ehsan is not alone in his predictions. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center agrees El Niño is 100% sticking around for about six more months.

This El Niño isn’t just expected to be long but also strong. It’s accelerating faster than any El Niño in recorded history and expected to reach “super” strength in the fall or winter.

As a result, it will have a “pretty substantial impact” on the weather we see over the next several months, said Brian James, Nexstar chief meteorologist.

It has already been making an impact on hurricane season, James said, fueling lots of activity in the Pacific but keeping things extra-quiet in the Atlantic.

As we head into winter, how El Niño plays out will be very different for the northern half of the country and the southern half . Broadly speaking, the northern states will be drier and warmer than normal, while southern states will be cooler and wetter. (See James’ more detailed forecast in the video at the top of this story.)

“We can still get occasional shots of colder air that drop into the central U.S., and we’re still going to get cold air to go across the northern Plains, and yes, there’s still going to be at least some snow across the northern part of the U.S., but the overall pattern does not favor a whole lot of snow across the northern U.S.,” James said.

While it looks like we will be stuck with El Niño for a while, it won’t be at peak strength the entire time. The Climate Prediction Center expects it to weaken from “very strong” to “strong” sometime by early spring, and then eventually move into the “moderate” category.