Soaring diesel prices pose latest economic headache for GOP

Rising diesel prices are proving to be a particular problem for Republicans as surging energy costs sour the economic mood just 45 days out from the midterms.

The national average for diesel jumped 42 cents over the last week, largely as a result of the ongoing U.S. war in Iran, though President Trump has sought to cast blame on energy facilities hit as part of the Russia-Ukraine war.

The $6.27 average price for a gallon of diesel on Tuesday was the highest ever, with no sign of relief as the winter heating season nears.

While Republicans have struggled to address rising gas prices across the board, diesel stands to have a particularly acute effect, hitting rural voters and other key parts of the GOP base.

Trump is downplaying growing concerns over rising energy costs as Election Day looms, telling voters in battleground North Carolina that higher gas prices are a “very inexpensive price to pay” for the Iran war.

“But that’s going to come tumbling down,” the president said of gas prices on Wednesday. “That’s going to be like rocket ships in reverse.”

Analysts, however, say they do not foresee prices coming down in future weeks.

“I think prices remain above six [dollars], and seven is not out of the realm of possibility,” said Tom Kloza, chief oil analyst at Gulf Oil, referring to diesel. “I think gasoline remains above four.”

Diesel is a primary fuel source for public transportation and the trucking industry. The fuel is also heavily utilized in the agricultural sector, impacting more rural parts of the country.

Kloza noted that particular scenarios, such as a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico, could make the prices of diesel and heating oil even worse.

“Not much the president can do about this, too,” he said. “I’m surprised that he hasn’t yet used the threat of export curbs or [windfall profits tax] to spook some of the hot money out of gasoline and diesel, but they haven’t done that yet.”

Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-N.D.) said earlier this week that he is “open to exploring” an export ban for diesel fuel if it “would take pressure off of prices.”

Interior Secretary Doug Burgum told reporters at the Group of 20 summit in Houston this week that a ban on U.S. fuel or oil exports would likely not lower prices.

“We would consider an export ban if we thought that actually might lower ​prices, but that’s not the case,” the secretary said.

The rise in diesel is the latest negative economic headline Republicans and the administration have had to grapple with ahead of the midterms.

Despite Trump calling for interest rates to come down, the Federal Reserve announced on Wednesday it was hiking them up by a quarter of a point in a move that was seen as recognition that inflation continues to plague Americans.

“I don’t think voters at the end of the day are going to make a decision on diesel. I think it’s part of the larger narrative,” one Republican strategist told The Hill.

But Democrats have been using rising energy prices to swipe at their Republican opponents on the campaign trail.

“Michiganders are now paying a staggering $5 a gallon for gas and $6.79 a gallon for diesel — raising prices for groceries and everything else,” Democratic Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed said in a statement on Thursday. “While Michiganders’ suffer from the massive price hikes brought on by Donald Trump’s illegal war in Iran, Mike Rogers was cashing in with his big oil backers at Trumpapalooza in Dallas.”

Former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.) issued his own response to rising gas prices on Thursday, calling for the suspension of the state and federal gas tax.

“Lansing Democrats have made abundantly clear that they want more money out of your pocket and in the government’s. Last year alone, they raised our gas tax from 31 cents on the gallon to 51. That’s unconscionable,” Rogers said in a statement.

Recent polling shows that voters’ patience on the economy, even among Republicans, is wearing thin.

A New York Times/Siena College poll released earlier this week found that only 29 percent of Republicans say the economy is better than it was a year ago, down from 72 percent in January.

“That’s cents on the gallon savings. It’s not dollars on the gallon, and that’s what we’re dealing with right now in people’s minds,” the Republican strategist said.

The president’s allies argue that his base of supporters understand why energy prices are high, citing the war.

“I think the president understands that there is pain at the pump for the American people,” said one GOP operative. “But I also think a large share of our voters understand why he’s doing what he’s doing in Iran. National security is a key part of his platform and the Republican agenda.”

Republicans say they are encouraging their incumbents and candidates to talk about the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, also known as the Working Families Tax Cut, as well as efforts to lower prescription drug prices.

During a closed-door meeting with House Republicans this week, Vice President Vance encouraged candidates to “level” with voters on the issue of affordability.

“You can talk about these things without pretending that everything is perfect, because the American people know that you guys inherited — we inherited — a massive pile of dog crap, and we have cleaned it out and we’ve made things a lot better,” Vance told GOP lawmakers, according to a source in the room.

“But Rome was not built in a day, and so I always find that actually leveling with the American people is very powerful. Saying we know that there’s a lot of work left to do,” he continued.

Trump said in an interview with Axios on Thursday that he has a “big decision” coming up in the war with Iran, adding that “anything could happen with me.”

Strategists remain skeptical that any move to end the war ahead of the midterms would change voters’ minds at this point.

“From an economic standpoint, the runway for that to allow the country to kind of regain its footing on a multitude of these economic fronts — it would take a long time and probably too long,” the Republican strategist said.