Proxy fight in Yemen heats up, risking new front in US-Iran war

The Iranian-backed Houthi rebel group’s reported takeover of a Yemen port city is raising the stakes in Tehran’s war with the U.S.

Saudi Arabia, which backs Yemen’s military, is reportedly urging President Trump to strike the rebels, while the U.S. has sent more than 100 advisors to aid its Saudi allies in the fight.

In a further escalation, Saudi Arabia on Friday said that it shut down the East-West Pipeline in the Riyadh and Madinah regions, later confirming the pipeline was attacked by “several” drones launched from Iraq, causing a “number of injuries.”

The pipeline, through which the kingdom can transfer 7 million barrels of crude, allows the country to transfer oil to the Red Sea after Iran effectively shut down the Strait of Hormuz.

The Houthi’s Thursday takeover of Mokha, a port city vital to controlling shipping through the Red Sea, gives Iran another possible foothold in the Middle East, as it can use the position to increase attacks or close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait — a vital shipping lane for energy exports.

That point of leverage could further damage global energy markets already hampered by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, according to analysts.

Brett Erickson, a managing principal of Obsidian Risk Advisors, said that if the Houthis moved forward to a complete shutdown of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, it would be “checkmate” for the U.S. and global energy markets.

“You’re losing millions of barrels per day. Yes, they can reroute with Suez [Canal]. You’re talking about weeks of essentially no flows due to the extra timeline. So it very much does become a checkmate at a time when Brent’s trading at $105, WTI is at $100, diesels at $6 a gallon,” Erickson said in a phone interview with The Hill on Friday, referring to the per-barrel costs of oil.

“It would just cut us out of runway,” he added.

Ahmad Sharawi, a senior research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), said that Houthis do not have to close Bab al-Mandeb to impact oil flows, as only a few strikes could make the route too risky for insurers and major shipping companies

“The impact of this would be particularly dangerous for Saudi Arabia, which is increasingly becoming reliant on the Red Sea as an alternative to the Strait of Hormuz,” Sharawi told The Hill on Friday.

Saudi crude can also be moved west through the East-West Pipeline, but that pipeline has also been attacked by other Iran-backed militias, meaning Saudi Arabia’s oil exports are threatened through almost all the routes that they depend on.

Mokha, about 50 miles from the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, is of particular importance to controlling the waterway, through which about 12 percent of global goods flow.

Houthi forces also reportedly captured the island of Perim, which sits in the middle of the strait, according to multiple outlets.

The takeovers come after the group in August renewed their attacks on Mokha, and its seizure would represent the biggest territorial gain for the Houthis since the group in 2022 signed an agreement to end a civil war that began in 2014.

Yemeni Air Force jets were bombing Houthis near Mokha on Friday, according to the government’s spokesperson.

Since the start of the conflict between Washington and Tehran, the Houthis have increased attacks against Yemen’s government and declared a blockade on Saudi Arabia , which entered the war on the side of the internationally recognized government.

In early August, Houthi rebels fired missiles and drones at Saudi military targets in the eastern city of Marib, Yemen, where two people were killed and more than a dozen injured.

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman has pressed Trump to take military action against the Houthis, with the two discussing the group’s developments at least twice in the 24 hours leading up to Friday morning, Axios reported .

While Trump has so far declined to strike the Houthis, he has agreed to help the Saudis by sharing military information and sending advisors to aid in developing targets on the group, two sources told the outlet.

Saudi Arabia can bombard the Houthis and unleash an air campaign to prevent the rebels’ advances and weaken their control of the area around the Bab al-Mandeb, but air power alone may not be enough and the kingdom would need a ground component as well to complement it, Sharawi, of FDD, said.

“While Saudi-backed forces have committed to launching a counteroffensive to reclaim areas taken by the Houthis, they remain fragmented among different factions, which has limited their advances and complicated the ground strategy,” he said.

Houthi spokesperson Yahya Saree claimed on Friday that maritime navigation is safe for all shipping companies besides Saudi Arabian ships, warning that the Houthi rebels could militarily escalate against Saudi-backed forces until the blockade on Yemen is lifted.

The strikes on the crucial Saudi oil pipeline mark another major setback for Prince Mohammad.

The oil pumping station located near the town of Al Mesba’ah, Saudi Arabia, sustained extensive damage following the attack, a Friday Planet Labs satellite image, which was shared with The Hill, shows.

Another pumping station near Al Dhekra, Saudi Arabia, was damaged in the attack, with dark smoke coming up, according to another image captured on Friday.

Erickson said the shutdown of the pipeline by itself is not a “huge deal” on energy markets, as the Saudis can repair it, but the shutdown is not happening “in isolation.”

“It’s in tandem with the Bab el-Mandeb, the Strait of Hormuz and 2 billion barrels of oil already lost and escalating tension in the region,” Erickson said.

“So, in isolation, maybe survivable, obviously, but it’s in the more complete picture that becomes really concerning and it also just shows they can repair it. Sure, it can be hit again and again and again,” he added. “We just don’t have a solution to protect critical energy infrastructure.”

The developments come oil prices rose above $100 a barrel this week, the first time that figure has been hit since mid-May.

Sabrina Singh, former Pentagon deputy press secretary, said the Houthis’ advance in recent days risks spilling over the Iran war into the region and could further imperil the global economy.

“And we know that Saudi Arabia has had to, in fact, reroute a lot of the oil that it would get out through the strait — it was using the Red Sea and trying to even export it up through the Suez Canal,” Singh said during her Friday appearance on CNN.

“With the Houthis now taking control of some of these two critical places, I think shipping is going to be further threatened, which means the global economy is going to be further upended.”