Almanacs release predictions for fall, winter – but can you trust them?

(NEXSTAR) — It’s that time of year again. Sunsets are creeping earlier , mornings are starting to feel crisp. A quick look at the calendar shows the autumnal equinox is only about a month away.

Which means, of course, that the almanacs have released their look-ahead forecasts.

The Old Farmer’s Almanac and the Farmers’ Almanac are separate periodicals. In addition to the extended forecasts, you will also find gardening tips and skywatching advice.

Last month, the Old Farmer’s Almanac put out its fall forecast, predicting a “warmer than average” fall, with a “cool, wet” outlook in the Pacific Northwest and northern New England. Much of the Plains and Rocky Mountains could see a warm and dry fall, as could some states in the central Gulf region, while the Midwest, Ohio Valley and the East Coast may experience a cool and dry fall.

If that sounds familiar, it’s because it isn’t that much unlike the forecast the Old Farmer’s Almanac put out last year .

Looking even further ahead, the Farmers’ Almanac recently released its winter weather predictions , calling for “snow, sleet and surprises.”

Generally, it forecasts that all of the U.S. could see precipitation, whether it’s “snowy” in the upper Plains and Midwest, “wet” across the Gulf and southern East Coast, “wetter” in the South or “coastal storms” in New England.

That’s slightly different from last year’s forecast:

Regardless of how alike or unlike these forecasts are to previous predictions, how accurate can they actually be?

“There are those who believe [them] and those who don’t,” meteorologist Rich Segal, who recently retired from Nexstar’s KXAN, previously explained.

Both publications claim to be 80% accurate with their long-range forecasts, which are fueled by their own secret formulas, though research shows only about half of the forecasts produced by the Farmers’ Almanac were correct.

The Old Farmer’s Almanac says its formula , created in 1792, considers solar science, climatology and meteorology. They compare “solar patterns and historical weather conditions with current solar activity.”

The Farmers’ Almanac’s formula , established in 1818, has evolved through the years. One of its main factors is the moon’s influence, as well as a comparison between previous weather patterns and current conditions.

However, the far-ahead planning that both publications employ causes pause for some.

“It’s more like a crapshoot of trusting something that far into the future since there are times the forecast is blown in the first 24 hours,” Segal explained.

You won’t see a winter weather forecast from the National Weather Service until mid-October, for example. Even that outlook is subject to change, and if it were released any earlier, its reliability would likely decline, Jon Gottschalck, Operational Prediction Branch Chief at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, told Nexstar.

Those outlooks also won’t predict specific events, such as major winter storms.

“It’s just not possible to do that,” Gottschalck said.

There are temperature and precipitation outlooks available for early fall via NOAA. But these are based on probability. For example, the upper Pacific Northwest is favored to see a warmer-than-average September, October and November. The southern Midwest and Ohio Valley, meanwhile, have an equal chance of a warmer or cooler fall.

NOAA, the Farmer’s Almanac and the Old Farmer’s Almanac do review some of the same factors.

That includes what could become the strongest El Niño pattern we’ve seen since 1950 .

Last week, national forecasters said the odds of this year’s El Niño reaching the highest strength level – often called a “super” El Niño – are now higher than 90%. The peak could come between October and December, which may continue to support the quiet hurricane season we’ve seen in the Atlantic and influence our winter.

Under a typical El Niño , the northern U.S. and into the Ohio Valley usually see a warmer, drier weather pattern. The southern portion of the country, meanwhile, may have a wetter winter with more rain and snow. However, the exact line that separates these different weather outlooks varies from year to year.

How El Niño actually impacts our winter remains to be seen.

So can you trust the almanac predictions? Ultimately, it’s up to you.

“It has its value to those who believe in it and subscribe as such,” Segal said. NOAA will have an outlook for the winter months — December, January, and February — in mid-October. Its current three-month outlook is for August, September and October.

“While no forecast can claim perfect accuracy, our predictions have proven useful for generations of planners and outdoor enthusiasts,” Sandi Duncan, the editor of the Farmers’ Almanac, told Nexstar last year. “We continuously refine our method but acknowledge that Mother Nature always has the final say.”

Nexstar’s Alix Martichoux contributed to this report.