NOAA releases weather predictions for the rest of 2026

(NEXSTAR) – The country is divided. Not over politics this time, but over weather.

An updated seasonal forecast released by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center on Thursday shows what kind of broad weather patterns every state can expect through the end of the year. The fate of the northern states, it turns out, is quite different from down south.

Much of the country is likely to see warmer-than-normal temperatures this fall, according to the latest outlook. That’s no huge surprise given the supercharged El Niño that’s building toward peak strength.

The states with the highest probability of seeing above-average warmth between October and December are those that are furthest north, plus California and Nevada.

A small handful of states – Colorado, New Mexico, Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas and Louisiana – are not leaning above-average this fall. That doesn’t mean they’ll be seeing cold weather, it just means the forecast is less clear. Those states have equal chances of seeing a warm fall season, a cool fall season, and a normal fall season.

When it comes to precipitation, the outlook is practically flipped. States further south are more likely to see above-average rainfall through the rest of the year.

A large band of the country, all the way from Southern California to the mid-Atlantic, is leaning toward above-average rain. Florida and its neighbors have the highest probability.

The Pacific Northwest and a sliver of the Great Lakes region are looking more likely to be dry.

The precipitation outlook is in line with a typical El Niño year, which tends to split the country in two. The exact dividing line shifts year to year depending on the position of the jet stream.

This year’s El Niño is predicted to be no small matter. National forecasters said last week the chance of a very strong or “super” El Niño had grown to over 90%.

There’s a 75% chance it will end up being the strongest El Niño since 1950.