Budget phones are disappearing fast, report says by 2030, 40% of sub-Rs 20,000 smartphones may be gone

The era of the budget smartphones is rapidly shrinking. Over 230 million annual smartphone shipments priced below $200 (Rs 20,000) will vanish from worldwide retail channels between 2025 and 2030, a report has said. According to Counterpoint Research’s Smartphone Shipment Forecast by Price Band tracker, this segment will contract by roughly 40% through the end of the decade. The decline comes even as total worldwide smartphone shipments stage a broader rebound back toward 2025 volumes.Why budget phones’ shipment will squeezeThe disappearing budget tier stems largely from structural aftershocks linked to the 2026–2027 industry downturn. A combination of rising prices for mobile chipsets and memory, higher baseline hardware requirements and phone makers scaling back unprofitable market footprints has made entry-level devices increasingly hard to sustain, the report said, adding, as components eat up a far larger share of total build costs on inexpensive devices, manufacturers have virtually no room to absorb price jumps.It also said that rather than buying brand-new budget handsets, consumers are responding in several ways. For example, users are delaying upgrades and extending how long they keep their existing devices. Some buyers are turning to certified refurbished and second-hand phones, and a portion of buyers is moving up into higher price tiers via installment plans.“The smartphone market will recover in unit terms, but the affordable segment will not return to its previous standing. The opportunity now shifts toward better-specced mainstream devices and premium products, although higher tiers cannot absorb all the lost volume. The result will be a market that is similar in overall size but materially different in value and competitive profile. There is also a wider connectivity risk, as the loss of affordable new smartphones could make it harder for first-time users in lower-income markets to come online,” said Yang Wang, Principal Analyst at Counterpoint Research.Smartphone shipment rebound expected through 2030Counterpoint estimates that overall smartphone deliveries will climb back to approximately 1.20 billion units by 2030, just behind 2025 benchmark levels. The stagnation across the mid-range highlights that budget volume is not simply flowing upward in a straight line. Instead, delayed purchase cycles and disappearing first-time buyer demand mean higher tiers will not make up for all the lost volume under $200.Across developing and lower-income markets, device affordability remains the single greatest roadblock to mobile internet access. As sub-$200 options disappear, the transition from basic feature phones or shared family devices to personal smartphone ownership risks slowing to a crawl. This slowdown threatens to complicate long-term efforts by network operators, software developers, and governments seeking to broaden digital public infrastructure, localized content and mobile financial services.You use AI every day. Now get your AI Quotient. Take the AIQ test.