MongoDB at a Crossroads: Wall Street Firm Lifts Target but Stays Neutral as AI Story Awaits Proof

MongoDB Inc. (NASDAQ: MDB )'s business maybe executing well, but the AI-driven demand acceleration bulls are expecting hasn't arrived yet. On August 24, UBS raised its price target on the stock to $460 from $350 while maintaining a Neutral rating on the shares.

The rating comes ahead of MongoDB's second quarter results for the period ending in July, due to release on Tuesday, September 1. Firm checks reveal stable operational database spending growth, competitive dynamics, and the potential for artificial intelligence to drive demand for MongoDB's data stack layer.

Other Wall Street firms have also been largely bullish on the stock. Recently, Evercore ISI initiated coverage on MongoDB with an Outperform rating, Citizens also raised its price target for MongoDB Inc. (NASDAQ:MDB) to $519, and Goldman Sachs reiterated its Buy rating ahead of its second-quarter earnings.

Despite the bullish outlook, UBS in particular isn't exactly excited about AI materially accelerating demand for MongoDB's platform. This is why the September 1 report will be an important test for the stock's bull case.

For the fiscal first quarter, revenue for MongoDB rose 25% to $687.6 million with an adjusted profit of $1.32 per share; both topping Wall Street expectations. Atlas, MongoDB's modern, multi-cloud database, saw its revenue up more than 29% year-over-year in the first quarter fiscal 2027. The Atlas-driven strength also led the company to raise its full-year fiscal 2027 guidance to revenue of $2.92 billion to $2.96 billion, representing roughly 19% to 20% growth.

Wall Street firms are also largely bullish on MongoDB's story. Evercore ISI is optimistic about the company's growth through developer adoption and Atlas, now accounting for an estimated 75% of its revenue. Citizens' backs the stock based on improved sales data, while Goldman Sachs is bullish on Atlas growth, expecting it to exceed company guidance and predicting an increase in second-half expectations. Other firms quoted expectations of significant Atlas growth as well, and also an anticipated increase in full-year guidance.

While MongoDB has an improving fundamental story, much of the optimism from Wall Street is coming from the assumption that AI workloads will eventually translate into faster database consumption. UBS, at this time, sees limited evidence of a material AI pull-through to MongoDB.

A not-so-recent bear case for the stock has also been the rise of artificial intelligence (AI). Investors have been fearing that AI would reduce the demand for traditional platforms by allowing developers to build faster and with fewer resources. This would in turn undercut central pillars of MongoDB's go-to-market strategies.