AI doomsday warnings unlikely to slow IPOs but questions linger

Anthropic is expected to beat rival OpenAI to the public markets with a blockbuster IPO later this year despite recent doomsday warnings, but questions remain about their business models and whether regulators should step in.

Concerns about the safety of advanced artificial intelligence models escalated this month after an employee resigned from Anthropic while warning that the industry was "gambling with our lives."

Jacob Coxon, who also previously worked at OpenAI, left Anthropic last week amid a flurry of support from his former colleagues, including one who voiced concern about a small probability that AI could cause humanity's extinction.We

Last weekend, Anthropic's own CEO Dario Amodei called for AI development to slow down -- but didn't say anything about the IPO.

The fracas forms a backdrop for highly anticipated initial public offerings from both OpenAI and Anthropic.

It's unclear if, or how, either company will address theoretical doomsday scenarios in securities filings, though.

Companies are required to publicly disclose known business risks to investors prior to an IPO.

Anthropic could submit that document to the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as early as this month.

"Are we to believe that there is something that's extremely dangerous that's hiding inside this company because this person that quit said it, and then it was amplified by a bunch of people" who still work there, All-In podcast co-host Chamath Palihapitiya said last week.

"If it's true... (investors) will demand an enormous discount," said Palihapitiya, a venture capitalist.

Altimeter Capital founder Brad Gerstner, who has shares in both OpenAI and Anthropic, downplayed the concerns this week, arguing that an IPO brings transparency for investors.

"Anthropic will IPO. The market knows how to price risk -- see SpaceX," Gerstner posted on X.

Elon Musk's SpaceX raised a record $85 billion in its June IPO, but its stock has lost around a quarter of its value since peaking at around $202 a share.

"There is huge appetite to invest in the AI leaders," Gerstner added.

How Anthropic's IPO performs will also set the tone for OpenAI's debut next year.

The stakes extend well beyond the two companies themselves, with tech giants including Microsoft, Amazon, Google and Nvidia holding significant stakes in the AI labs.

More broadly, the US economy is increasingly tied to the AI buildout, meaning the success or failure of these IPOs carries weight for the wider economy.

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said this weekend that the company would delay its own IPO until 2027, citing safety concerns. It's an "ill-advised moment," Altman said.