Big Short Investor Issues AI Warning: ‘70% of AI Revenue Is Just Two Companies, And One of Them I Think Is in Trouble’

NVIDIA's $5.52 trillion market cap and Microsoft's $250 billion OpenAI Azure deal both hinge on a customer base Eisman calls dangerously concentrated.

Eisman warns 70% of hyperscaler AI revenue flows from OpenAI and Anthropic, with OpenAI the single point of failure for the entire AI cycle.

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Steve Eisman, the money manager who shorted subprime and was portrayed by Steve Carell in The Big Short , warned on his September 21 podcast that the AI trade rests on dangerous concentration. "70% of AI revenue of the hyperscalers is just from OpenAI and anthropic," he said [sic], which amounts to about 25% to 35% of the hyperscalers' entire cloud revenue. His conclusion: "the entire ecosystem is dependent upon two companies" and "one of them I think is in trouble, which is OpenAI."

Eisman's warning came six days after OpenAI's CFO tried to reassure the market. On September 15, OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar told CNBC the company's business is "a diversified set of revenue streams" with strong margins and a diversified chip supply chain. The next day, CNBC reported that investors had approached OpenAI about a new funding round at a valuation as high as $1.5 trillion, with no active raise underway. Within a week, the market heard OpenAI described as either a $1.5 trillion diversified platform or the single point of failure for the entire AI capex cycle.

Eisman offered no source for the 70% figure. If directionally correct, it suggests customer concentration at the top of the AI stack is worse than any 10-K discloses.

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NVIDIA ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) sits at the head, with a market cap of roughly $5.52 trillion. Fiscal Q2 revenue hit $96.22 billion, up 105.8% year over year, with data center revenue of $89.02 billion. CEO Jensen Huang said compute is "supply-constrained" and guided Q3 revenue to $108.0 billion. Supply commitments have swelled to $279 billion, with $108.5 billion in guarantee obligations to AI cloud and data center partners. NVIDIA has invested nearly $50 billion in the Frontier AI Labs.