Nvidia Isn’t the Only Way to Win the AI Chip Race
Marvell has quietly turned itself into one of the most aggressive bets on AI infrastructure without selling a single GPU, and a surprise $12.2 billion disclo...
MRVL rates a BUY with a $279 price target and 90% confidence, after a $12.2B Google warrant confirmed its custom-silicon leadership position.
MRVL's 58x forward P/E looks reasonable next to NVDA's premium franchise and AVGO's rapid AI growth, given its projected 40% FY27 revenue expansion.
Management raised FY28 revenue guidance to $16.5B, fueling a bull case of $353, but hyperscalers moving silicon in-house could trigger the $212 bear case.
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Marvell Technology ( NASDAQ:MRVL ) has quietly become one of the most levered plays on AI infrastructure outside of NVIDIA, and after a 233.59% one-year run, shareholders want to know if there is still room to work.
Our 24/7 Wall St. price target for Marvell is $279.18, implying 17.78% upside from a current price of $237.04. We rate the stock a buy with 90% confidence, anchored on accelerating data center revenue and a raised fiscal 2028 outlook.
How Marvell Got Here: A Google Warrant and a $12.2B Signal
Marvell is up 179.34% year to date and 12.35% over the past month, though the stock sits 20% below its 52-week high of $329.80. Recent news flow has been decisive. On August 19, Marvell rose 13% on a $12.2 billion Google warrant disclosure, reinforcing the custom-silicon narrative.
Q1 FY27 revenue landed at $2.418 billion, up 27.57% year over year, with data center now 76% of total revenue. CEO Matt Murphy told investors: "We are seeing exceptional AI-related bookings."
Management raised fiscal 2027 revenue guidance to nearly $11.5 billion and fiscal 2028 to approximately $16.5 billion, a $1.5 billion raise versus prior.
Interconnect revenue is now expected to grow more than 70% in fiscal 2027, scale-out switch revenue should exceed $600 million, and Murphy reaffirmed a target of over $10 billion in custom silicon revenue in fiscal 2029.
Our bull-case scenario points to $353.06, roughly 48.94% upside, if scale-up optics ramp materially in FY28. Wells Fargo raised the firm's price target on Marvell to $310 from $240 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares.
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