Expert CFB Locks, Predictions for Miami vs. Notre Dame and Week 10's Biggest Games
We cherish each and every week of the college football season, largely because we know it won't last forever. But some weeks carry more weight when the matchups line up just right. Week 10 is one of the most sensational slates of games we've seen in some time.
We cherish each and every week of the college football season, largely because we know it won't last forever. But some weeks carry more weight when the matchups line up just right. Week 10 is one of the most sensational slates of games we've seen in some time.
The headliner, of course, is Notre Dame-Miami. We'll get to that, but the rest of the lineup is deep, as the stakes finally feel significant.
If you love college football, Week 10 is for you. If you love picking winners, you're in the right place.
We had our third consecutive winning week, as we've finally found a rhythm. We're 19-9-1 in that stretch. We're hoping to extend that stretch this week. At the very least, we have plenty of fascinating games to work with.
Before the season began, this felt like one of the biggest moments of the season. Thankfully, 10 weeks later, that is exactly what we have.
With that said, we have drama. We had written about this game in full, and then the news that star wideout Malachi Toney would miss the game (and time after that) with an ankle injury.
That certainly changes things in a major way for Miami, although it doesn't sway our opinion. Just the line.
Miami remains unbeaten, despite a few close calls. Notre Dame, with a road loss to BYU, has just one loss. The Irish are 4-4 against the spread; Miami is 5-3 ATS.
As for the venue, it feels significant. Not only are the Hurricanes playing this game on the road, but they will also do so with temperatures hovering somewhere in the mid-40s. We're not expecting snow or frigid rain, but the first signs of football weather have arrived.
How will that impact a team from south Florida? We'll find out.
Last week, neither team looked superb. Notre Dame started slowly against Navy before pouring it on in the second half. Miami escaped its game against North Carolina with a 38-35 win.
Quarterback Darian Mensah is still available, and the Notre Dame defense is beat up. This is certainly an opportunity for him to showcase his ability, and he has plenty of it.
As for the other side of the ball, the Irish offense should find success. The Hurricanes currently have the nation's No. 122 passing defense.
The loss of Toney moves the number, and it also drastically impacts the game. While wideouts don't normally move point spreads, this is different because Toney is different. Notre Dame stays in the playoff mix.
We likely won't know exactly how badly Texas is injured until the Missouri game, but what we know is plenty.
There are injuries and concerns on offense at running back and wide receiver. The defensive backfield has taken a hit. The team's best player, pass rusher Colin Simmons, hasn't played in weeks with an ankle injury. Throw in the loss of Trevor Goosby, the team's starting left tackle, and the concerns are massive.
When fully healthy, Texas has been inconsistent. All was well last week for the Longhorns against Mississippi State, although this team was dealing with major injuries as well.
Playing Missouri on the road feels like a different challenge entirely. After spending the last few weeks on the road, the Tigers come home. The venue has treated them well of late.
In its last two games, Missouri outscored Florida and Texas A&M by a combined score of 72-23, easily covering the spread in both matchups.
Austin Simmons has been excellent at quarterback, Jamal Roberts has been sensational at running back and the defense, which currently ranks No. 23 in scoring, has held up.
As for Texas, the Longhorns will play their second true road game of the season this week, which is hard to believe. Given the inconsistencies we've seen from Arch Manning and the offense, this might not go all that well.
Football is often a game about firepower. You either have it or you don't.
Ole Miss is by no means a perfect football team. The defense isn't ranked in the top 60 in scoring. They are also outside the top 60 in turnover margin.
But in terms of firepower—the kind of play that absolutely terrifies opposing defensive coordinators—the Rebels have a lot to offer.
Georgia has more talent. The defense is better. The roster is deeper. It also has a solid quarterback in Gunner Stockton, who has led the fourth-best scoring offense in the country.
But does this offense scare you the same way Trinidad Chambliss does on every drop back? Let's just say it's different, which it is.
Georgia clobbered Florida last week. It did so by limiting the Gators to just 252 yards of offense. The Bulldogs' offense was fine, as it didn't have to be anything more than that.
This week, however, things could be different.
Georgia passed its first major road test of the year, winning at Alabama. That experience should help greatly, although it's still a tall task. At home this year, Ole Miss has beaten LSU and delivered a dominant win over Missouri. Both of those outcomes have aged well.
This would be a significant resume boost for the Rebels. An outright win seems possible. We like the points and more.
Last week was a mess. Let's not sugarcoat it.
Ohio State, playing its first game without Julian Sayin, looked like a team playing without its starting quarterback.
Freshman Luke Fahey wasn't awful. He wasn't great, either. Still, the experience of heading to USC should pay dividends moving forward. He still has Jeremiah Smith to throw to, which should help enormously.
As for Oregon, what a weird year. The Ducks deserve credit for beating Northwestern, especially considering they were down 20-6 near halftime. Quarterback Dylan Raiola played well, which was the latest development in a bizarre, up-and-down season.
For Ohio State, playing at home will help significantly. Not just for the young quarterback, but for a team in need of an emotional boost. While the Buckeyes will benefit from a weekend at home, the Ducks have struggled playing away from home this year.
Losses to Oklahoma State and Illinois are already on the resume. This setting promises to be the most daunting to date.
Ohio State is by no means perfect. The concerns at quarterback are real. Still, this feels like a weekend to get right against a team that is a shell of what we thought it might be.
We liked Syracuse last week, although we didn't expect SMU to lose that game outright.
The Mustangs' four-game winning streak came undone on the road despite an excellent game from quarterback Kevin Jennings. In three road games this year, SMU is 1-2. The one victory came against Florida State in a tight game.
The good news is that this week's game will be played at home, which is a much-needed change of scenery.
Virginia Tech, coming off a bye, beat Clemson last time out. The offense was excellent, although the timing of the week off was probably ideal.
Outside of that win against the Tigers, however, it's hard to find a performance that really stands out for Virginia Tech. The offense certainly has plenty of talent, but the pieces haven't always fit together.
Taking on a tough offense on the road—particularly one coming off a hard-fought loss—feels like a potential mismatch. So far, the bettors haven't necessarily felt that way. The point spread has moved in the Hokies' favor.
That's not changing our minds whatsoever. SMU gets back on track with a double-digit victory.
The Bruins are legit. Despite playing without their starting QB, UCLA is unbeaten. Having a superb head coach helps. But this is a really tricky road trip and an early start time for a West Coast team. Look out.
It's a weird trip for North Carolina, coming off back-to-back heartbreaks against Syracuse and then Miami. UConn has enough offense to make this game compelling. Don't be shocked if this is a one-score game late.
We're on Utah State again. We're well aware of the fact that the offense has struggled at times. That wasn't the case last week against Colorado State. It won't be the case again against a defense that hasn't exactly been stellar.
Remember a few weeks ago when UCF beat BYU and shocked the football world? A few weeks later, the Knights are just a small favorite against a three-win team. An ugly loss to Baylor a week ago, and it was ugly, certainly played a role.
South Florida has won six games, although the team has unquestionably benefited from a favorable schedule. That's certainly evident in this point spread, which seems to favor four-win ECU.
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